La Popolare di Sondrio at the center of speculation
Banking risk reignites in Italy, but this time the focus is not on Monte dei Paschi di Siena but on Popolare di Sondrio. The bank’s stock has been rising steadily since December and recently reached a six-month high, recording an increase of 52% and reaching 6.3 euros. Despite a subsequent retracement to 6.16 euros, with an increase of 2.25%, Popolare di Sondrio saw a high trading volume yesterday of 3.4 million titles, double the usual average, as reported by Corriere.
Press rumors suggest that an investment bank is accumulating 10% of the shares of Popolare di Sondrio on behalf of another institution, in anticipation of an extraordinary operation. Although Unicredit was named as a possible buyer, the bank denied this hypothesis. Andrea Orcel, head of Unicredit, had anticipated a “merger dance” between banks, highlighting the market’s demand for mergers and aggregations.
Popolare di Sondrio saw Unipol, already a shareholder of Bper, rise to 19.7% in September. This has fueled speculation about Unipol’s possible involvement in a reorganization of bancassurance networks. Unipol, an important insurance group, aims to distribute its products through banking networks, making Popolare di Sondrio a possible meeting point between the parties, especially considering the rich and sought-after region of Lombardy in which the bank operates.
However, the possible move attributed to Unicredit has raised doubts. Some market participants speculate that an activist fund may be behind the action, perhaps already a member of Popolare di Sondrio, in view of the April assembly. The acquisition of a significant stake could be strategic to influence the assembly or induce more significant operations in the future.
Despite Orcel’s denials regarding the acquisition of Popolare di Sondrio shares, Unicredit has around 10 billion in excess capital. The choice to postpone the approval of the fourth quarter accounts to February 4, Sunday, has raised questions about a possible extraordinary operation with the markets closed. Goldman Sachs’ interest could be oriented towards Popolare di Sondrio as part of the Italian banking risk, complicating any Unipol strategies.
The Unipol Group, with a consolidated position in the capital of Popolare di Sondrio, has strengthened its collaboration through a recent partnership for the distribution of insurance products. However, with the hypothesis of Unicredit’s involvement, the Unipol Group may have to evaluate a counter-move to preserve its strategy in the banking and insurance sector. Meanwhile, the market reacts positively to speculation, with Bper, Unicredit and Popolare di Sondrio recording increases significant in Piazza Affari.
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