No collapse, just a quarterly slowdown. Industrial production in March is holding up and despite the invasion of Ukraine and the tension on raw materials and energy, Istat reports a quarterly decline of 0.9% compared to October-December, while net of calendar effects, in March 2022 the overall index increased in trend terms by 3% (there were 23 calendar working days as in March 2021). There are trend increases for consumer goods (+ 8.1%), energy (+ 5.2%) and capital goods (+ 3%). On the other hand, the sector of intermediate goods fell (-0.4%). The Confindustria Research Department, however, expects a collapse in April with a negative impact on GDP dynamics for the second quarter of the year.
The monthly seasonally adjusted index of industrial production – reports Istat – in March shows a sustained economic increase for energy (+ 2.7%) and more contained growth for consumer goods (+ 1%) and capital goods (+ 0.4%); vice versa, a decrease was observed for intermediate goods (-0.7%). The sectors of economic activity that recorded the largest trend increases in March are the textile, clothing, leather and accessories industries (+ 15%), the manufacture of computers and electronics products (+ 7.5%) and the manufacture of machinery. and equipment nec (+ 7.4%) and the food industry (+ 7%). The greatest downward trends are recorded in mining activities (-9%), in the manufacture of means of transport (-3%) and in metallurgy and manufacture of metal products (-1.8%). In trend terms, net of calendar effects, the trend remains positive also in the first quarter as a whole, up by 1.3% compared to the first three months of 2021 with + 4.4% for consumer goods and a + 3.5% for energy. On the average of the first three months there is a tendential decline of 1.4% for the production of intermediate goods.