It is still worth the seasonal consumption off-season steel supply and demand double weak characteristics are obvious|Steel_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Research report text

【Steel】

As of 15:00 on January 13,RebarThe closing price of the 2305 contract was 4173 yuan/ton (+1.14%), and the daily open interest was 1.28 million lots (+60547 lots).Hot rollThe closing price of the 2305 contract was 4202 yuan/ton (+0.89%), with a daily position of 810,400 lots (+13398 lots).

In terms of spot goods, the quotation of Shanghai HRB400E 20mm is 4140 yuan/ton (+0.00%), and that of Tangshan common billet is 3850 yuan/ton (+0.26%). The price of Shanghai Q235B 4.75mm is 4230 yuan/ton (+0.71%).

Last week, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice at the same time, deciding to establish the first set of dynamic adjustment mechanism for housing loan interest rate policy. The disk also showed some performance driven by the expected marginal improvement of this real estate.

Judging from the current steel fundamentals, it is still in the off-season of seasonal consumption, and the characteristics of both supply and demand of steel are obvious. The macro benefits brought about by the current expectations have been exhausted for the time being, and the market gains driven by expectations need to be supported by subsequent improvements in reality.

The focus of current market transactions is still the improvement of post-holiday demand. If traders have insufficient confidence in post-holiday demand, the previous bullish expectation of the end of the transaction may bring about an overall adjustment in the black market.

It is necessary to pay attention to the degree of improvement in the overall demand for steel brought about by the overall improvement of the macro economy after the Spring Festival holiday. If the demand cannot be undertaken after the holiday and the speed of destocking is slower than expected, the price may fall. Based on the current supply and demand situation, the total inventory pressure after the Spring Festival may be similar to the level in 2022. The inventory pressure of steel products in the first quarter is not large, and the impact on prices is neutral. Table demand is 2.1207 million tons (-34.61); output is 2.4775 million tons (-23.88); total inventory is 6.0467 million tons (+35.68).

At present, steel mills are still facing losses, steel inventory is still at a historically neutral position, and the overall price is supported below, but it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in Australian coal imports after the Sino-Australian negotiations.coking coalThe supply side has improved, and the cost side has moved down, which will put downward pressure on steel prices.

【iron orestone】

As of 15:00 on January 13, the closing price of the iron ore 2305 contract was 881.0 yuan/ton (+3.40%), with a daily position of 953,300 lots (+23,454 lots).

The quotation of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port is 860 yuan/wet ton (+1.42%), and the quotation of Platts 62% index is 127 US dollars (+2.71%).

The overall price of iron ore was weak last week, and the price center fell slightly compared with last week. Over the weekend, the Development and Reform Commission interviewed iron ore consulting companies, and the opening of iron ore today may be affected by this. The price of iron ore below is supported. The reason is that steel mills have increased their inventory replenishment efforts in the past two weeks. Behind the correction is still strong expectations for improvement in steel demand such as real estate, but the overall iron ore inventory level of steel mills is still at a historically low level. In the low position, the replenishment logic still does not replenish the library on demand.

Last week, 45 ports arrived at a total of 26.823 million tons (+603.2). The average daily dredging volume of 45 ports is 3.1196 million tons (+20.08), the inventory of 45 ports is 131.3054 million tons (-55.09), the daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills is 2.2072 million tons (-1.79), and the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across the country The volume is 99.5634 million tons (+452.11).

The short-term positive expectations of iron ore have been fulfilled in reality, and currently they mainly follow the trend of finished products. The output of molten iron remained at the level of 2.2 million tons, which supported the price of iron ore.

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