Il centennial of the air force offers a unique starting point to reflect from an Italian perspective not only on the past of air power, but on its present and future based on technological development, the strategic framework marked by the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the growing interconnection between the air and space domains . These are some of the main themes of the AeroSpace Power Conference organized by the armed force last May 12-13 in Rome as the key event of its centenary – a conference of which the IAI was a scientific partner.
A century of aeronautics and technology
Among the first in the world, the Italian Air Force was founded in 1923 with technology in its DNA, in line with the futuristic spirit of the time and also thanks to the vision of military strategists such as Julius Douhet. And it grows intimately linked to the industrial and technological progress of the 1900s, from avionics to engines, from materials to electronics, from sensors to telecommunications – without forgetting its constant gaze at outer space.
The Cold War gave an obvious strategic-military push in this regard throughout the West, given the transversal and total competition with the Soviet Union. But the tension towards technological innovation has also remained strong in the thirty years that from 1991 to 2022 saw the armed forces of NATO countries engaged against opponents who were not equal, and therefore in operational theaters where air supremacy was quickly acquired and easily maintained – from Iraq to the Western Balkans, from Afghanistan to Libya. All operations that saw the Italian air capabilities – of the air force and navy – at the forefront.
Precisely in the post-Cold War period Italy brought to maturity and put into service theEurofighter 2000 co-produced with Great Britain, Germany and Spain, and has participated since the beginning and with a leading role among the European partners in the development, production and use of F-35: the two current pillars of the Italian fighter fleet, the result of the foresight and continuity of the defense industrial policy in the aeronautical field. It is no coincidence that the only F-35 assembly and maintenance line in the world outside the United States has been operating for over a decade in Italy, in Cameri, and the Italian navy is one of three in the world – the only one in the European Union – to equip its aircraft carrier with fifth generation fighters.
The Implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War for Air Power
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting high-intensity, large-scale and protracted warfare change the strategic framework for Western air power. Russia has not achieved supremacy in the skiesalso due to the Ukrainian air defense systems, and has thus lost the opportunity to pave the way for land maneuvers and accompany them with air support. Moscow continues to bomb periodically throughout the Ukrainian territory with missiles and drones, causing casualties and destruction, but fails to paralyze from the air neither the armed forces nor the Ukrainian institutions, also because the majority of Russian attacks are intercepted before hitting the target.
Vice versa, Kyiv has managed to bomb Russian military depots and infrastructure to date in their territories under occupation, also in view of the forthcoming land counter-offensive. The Russo-Ukrainian war therefore sees the lack of a clear air superiority, a condition that contributes to the prolongation of a war of attrition centered on land battles such as that of Bakhmut, and therefore to the mounting of military and civilian casualties to an unprecedented level in history of Europe after the Second World War.
All this imposes a change of priority for European aeronauticswhich will have to review their military doctrines and prioritize investments and capabilities necessary for deterrence and defense against an equal opponent such as Russia.
In this perspective, thetechnological innovation in the western field it is necessary both to ensure integrated air and missile defense of European territory against the Russian threat, and to overcome Russian defenses and destroy opposing military capabilities in the event that they are used against NATO countries. This is a different approach from the Ukrainian one, which due to military limitations and political choice does not massively strike Russian territory in order to avoid an escalation of the conflict between Russia and NATO. But if this escalation started from Moscow, there would be no boundaries to the use of air power by either side of the conflict. Therefore, it would be wrong to think about extending the modalities of the air war going on in Ukraine to one clash between Russia and NATO which would have very different characteristics.
Rather, it is necessary to start from the doctrinal corpus, from the planning and from the expertise accumulated by the western armed forces and update it in the light of the changed strategic framework, of the lessons to be learned from the conflict, of technological innovation, and of an approach to military operations that is increasingly “multi -domain” – a concept that Italy would do well to translate and implement as “joint forces”. This overall reflection should also include the theme of the balance between the quantity of available assets, quality, technological level and cost.
China and the Indo-Pacific partners
All without forgetting that for the United States – and the partner countries of the Indo-Pacific – the challenge for the short and long term comes primarily from Beijing. For this reason, the Chinese has entered the NATO horizon as enshrined in the 2022 Strategic Concept, and is a factor that will obviously be important in the development of the new sixth generation aircraft through the Global Combat Air Program launched by Great Britain, Italy and Japan. It is no coincidence that the Japanese air force chief of staff was the only military leader of a non-NATO country to intervene at last week’s Aerospace Power Conference in Rome.
The growing nexus between space and defense
Beyond the war in Ukraine and the tensions in the Indo-Pacific, the air domain it’s changing and increasingly interconnecting with that space, especially thanks to current and future technological progress. THE hypersonic missiles developed by Chinese e Russiaand already used by Moscow in the Ukrainian conflict, drastically shorten the reaction time for the integrated air and missile defense of NATO countries, and require space-based warning and tracking systems.
The congestion of low earth orbits, increasingly reachable by satellites of various sizes launched by various military and civilian carriers, and the proliferation of debris resulting from this congestion, pose the question of the safety of the continuum between the airspace and the extra space in new terms atmospheric. In general, the link between space and defense has grown rapidly in recent years and will continue to do so, posing new challenges – technological and beyond – and new horizons for the most advanced aeronautics in the world such as the Italian one.
Cover photo ANSA/GIUSEPPE LAMI