According to the central value derived from the Bank of Italy models, it is estimated that in the third quarter the GDP decreased marginally compared to the previous three months, despite the stability of the added value in services; this would have been affected by the further increases in energy costs, the continuation of supply difficulties in the global value chains, albeit partially attenuated compared to the spring months, and the continuing uncertainty about the evolution and effects of the war in Ukraine.
In the same period, the Ita-coin indicator, which measures the dynamics of the product net of the most erratic components, also decreased, placing itself on negative values for the first time since the end of 2020. According to the most updated projections of the Bank of Italy analysts, in as a whole by 2022, GDP would increase by just over 3 percent