«The Italian economy is growing beyond forecast estimates and spurs our Government to do even more to support those who produce wealth in our nation. These data are proof of this: our companies, when placed in a position to unleash their full potential, know how to make the difference by making Italy strong and competitive and promoting the well-being of all Italians». Thus the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni commenting on the latest Istat data on social networks.
So far the feared recession due to the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis has therefore been avoided, but a real post-Covid recovery is long in coming. According to Eurostat (the European equivalent of the Italian Istat) that in the first quarter of this year the GDP grew in the EU by 1.3% compared to the same period in 2022. By comparing instead between October-December 2022 and January-March 2023 there was imperceptible growth in the Eurozone, of 0.1%, which indicates a dangerous slowdown, while in the EU as a whole (i.e. considering also the countries that have not adopted the euro) the growth is 0.3%. On a quarterly basis, the highest increase was recorded in Portugal (+1.6%) followed by Italy, Spain and Latvia (+0.5%). Germany, once referred to as the economic “locomotive” of Europe, has instead suffered a decline of 0.1%.
Basically, Italy ranks second in terms of growth rate and this is the position of Treasury Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti: «Responsible ambition pays off. Allegations are answered by facts”.
However, it must be considered that if now in Italy and in the rest of Europe we consider modest growth a success, before the war broke out in Ukraine, GDP traveled at a rate of +6 or +7% to recover from the fall of Covid, while now it seems runny fat to avoid another recession.