Effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on GDP growth and on the public accounts of Italy and Europe. The European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen has sharply revised its estimates downwards, lowering them to growth of + 2.4% in 2022 for Italy’s GDP, compared to the + 4.1% previously expected last February. .
For 2023, Italy’s GDP is expected to slow down at a rate of + 1.9%, less than the + 2.3% previously forecast.
In the spring outlook, the Commission specified that “most of Italy’s growth” relative to 2022 is “attributable to a carry-over effect”, triggered by the “rapid recovery” that the economy reported in 2021.
Brussels also cut estimates on Italy’s deficit-to-GDP and debt-to-GDP ratios, stating however that the deficit and debt “will continue to decline but remain high”
The 2022 deficit-GDP outlook has been revised down from the previous 5.8% to 5.5%, remaining unchanged for next year at a drop to 4.3%.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is now estimated at 147.9% for 2022, less than the 151.4% previously expected, and 146.8% for 2023, compared to 151% in the February outlook.
In the update of the Commission’s outlook, we read that “the outlook remains subject to pronounced downside risks” and that Italy, as “one of the major importers of Russian natural gas among the EU countries,” would be seriously hit by abrupt supply disruptions “.
For the GDP of the euro area, Brussels expects a growth in gross domestic product, for 2022, equal to + 2.7% and equal to + 2.3% in 2023: here too the scissoring of previous outlooks is strong, which they indicated expansions of + 4.3% and + 2.4%, respectively.