“There was a lot of anticipation for the macroeconomic figures on the American world of work. Following the statements of many FOMC members (most recently Patrick Harker president of the Philadelphia FED) the market was discounting very robust numbers on job creation in May after a disappointing April figure. The figures on the US employment front, on the other hand, were very mixed. They disappointed with the sub-expected creation of new jobs and the labor force participation rate, which remains far below pre-pandemic levels. The positive aspects come from the drop in the unemployment rate and the rise in wages ”. This is the comment Filippo Diodovich, senior strategist of Ig Italia, dedicated to US Non Farm Payrolls.
As for the reaction on the markets, “after a certain volatility, purchases on equities and sells on the dollar, driven by the belief that the recovery of pre-pandemic levels for the world of work will be very gradual and the Fed’s targets are not yet achieved – explains Diodovich -. This leads us to think that in the next Fed meeting on June 15-16, the president of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell will leave monetary strategies unchanged, with purchases in the Quantitative Easing plan standing at 120 billion dollars a month “.
From Ig they point out that their view is less certain than that of investors. “We believe there are still possibilities that the Fed may begin the tapering process very soon (in the summer), with possible announcement at the next meeting or in Jackson Hole (July 12-16). The next data on the trend in consumer prices will therefore be very important and will be published on Thursday 10 June ”, the experts conclude.