He was immediately described as a “kingmaker”, the political exponent who, in the first round of the presidential elections in Turkey last May 14th, collected 5.2% of the preferences, conquering the undecided in the challenge between the two main candidates, the president outgoing Erdoğan and opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: we are talking about the nationalist candidate and university professor Sinan Ogan55, leader of the ATA alliance, born in early March.
After days of indecision, talks and procrastination, Oğan lifted his reservation: in the second round on Sunday 28 May he will support Erdoğan, candidate for the People’s Alliance and leader of the AKP (the Justice and Development Party). In his statement, Oğan also specified that he considers Kılıçdaroğlu an unconvincing alternative to the outgoing president.
Meanwhile, on May 20, the seats abroad for the second round: it will be possible to vote until 24 May. In the first round, the turnout of non-Turkish voters stopped at 53% and, to name just a few countries, the Turks in Italy and the USA voted for Kılıçdaroğlu, while in France and Germany the majority went to Erdoğan.
The parties towards the ballot
The photograph of Turkish political geography to date therefore sees a Türkiye divided almost in half, which exited the first round of presidential voting with a turnout of almost 90% and with Erdoğan, who stood at 49.5%, followed by the Kemalist leader of the CHP (the Republican Party) Kılıçdaroğlu, who stopped at 44.9%. In particular, Erdoğan retains control of Turkey’s innermost areas (Anatolia, therefore, but also provinces such as Gaziantep and Şanlıurfa, in the south-east, strongly affected by the earthquake of February 6, 2023); Kilicdarogluhowever, also making a comparison with the election results of the Republican Party in the last presidential elections in June 2018, conquest istanbul (where Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu ran for the CHP), Ankara (where Mayor Mansur Yavaş is a candidate, again from the ranks of the CHP), but also the district of Eskişehir, geographically close to Ankara, that of Antalya, Mersin and Adana, also maintaining the majority in the historic strongholds of the west. For its part, Oğan exceeds 8% in the province of Bilecik, near Bursa, but it is also good in the aforementioned Eskişehir (7.3%).
at parliamentary electionsInstead, the AKP has held its own against other parties: reaches 35.6%, thus winning 268 seats in the Grand Parliamentary Assembly, however losing ground compared to 2018 (when it obtained 42.6% of the votes and 295 seats). The CHP rises in terms of representation (169 seats with 25.3%, against 22.6% in 2018), followed by: 50 seats for the nationalist party MHP (at 10%); 43 to the Turkish nationalist, Kemalist and secularist IYI Partisi (the Good Party), founded by former minister Meral Akşener; 61 seats of the Green Left Party, close to the Kurds of Selahattin Demirtaş’s HDP, still in prison; 5 seats in the Yeniden Refah Partisi, founded by Fatih Erbakan son of Necmettin, father of the Welfare Party (the Refah Partisi); finally, 4 seats went to TIP (Türkiye İşçi Partisi), the Workers’ Party of Turkey.
The refugee issue at the polls
The outgoing president Erdoğan therefore seems close to re-election, despite not having dominated since the first round and also thanks to Oğan’s endorsement. However, Kılıçdaroğlu does not give up on the competition and indeed has more recently abandoned the conciliatory tones which he instead demonstrated during the first round electoral campaign and which had earned him the nickname of “Turkish Gandhi”, as well as leader of “radical love”.
Kilicdarogluwho had eliminated any doubts about his positions even during his speeches, often recorded from the kitchen of his home, and during which he had declared that he was an Alevi Kurd, today it marries harsher, nationalist and anti-migrant tones: the leader of the Alliance of the Nation (which is home to 7 different parties, so as to cover the entire electoral mirror, from left to right) has promised that, if elected on May 28, he will proceed with the repatriation of Syrian refugeesfollowing up on a promise it had already made in the past (namely the one on reaching an agreement with Damascus).
The point about migrants for Kılıçdaroğlu is a matter of national security. The same has decided to implement a new communication strategytrying to be more present on social media and attracting the interest of the so-called Generation Z. All changes that contribute to making Kılıçdaroğlu stronger and more decisive and which in some ways they bring him closer to the outgoing president: whatever the electoral result in the second round, the strategy of the neighboring countries in bilateral relations with Turkey cannot ignore it.
Cover photo EPA/ERDEM SAHIN