Source: Futures Daily
Macro factors superimpose inventory depletion, tin strengthens day by day
Yesterday, driven by the sharp drop in Lunni, other metals on the LME fell to varying degrees, and domestic metals also fell significantly during the night session. Prior to this, the domestic non-ferrous sector showed an obvious rebound trend, and the Wenhua non-ferrous commodity index rose by more than 6% on a weekly basis. Among them, the price of tin at home and abroad has risen sharply, and the domestic tin price has approached the 190,000 mark.
“Overall, the recent marginal recovery in the macro sector is an important driving force to stimulate the rebound of the non-ferrous sector.” Jiang Lu told reporters that the recent U.S. unemployment rate data for October rose by 0.2% to 3.7% from the previous month. Expectations of continuing to raise interest rates have weakened, and the fall of the dollar stimulated the rise of the external market. In addition, the domestic epidemic prevention and control policy has been further improved, and the new policy for the supervision of real estate pre-sale funds has been introduced, and the strong RMB exchange rate has boosted the confidence of the commodity market.
Depending on the variety, Jiang Lu said that in the short termShanghai CopperThe main 2212 contract was blocked around 68,000 yuan/ton. Due to the delivery demand, the stock exchanges at home and abroad have accumulated. The copper inventory of the previous period increased by 12,228 tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 3,175 tons. The situation has eased. Under the negative background of global macro pressure still existing and the fundamentals may turn head, there is no room for copper prices to continue to rebound sharply in the short term. In terms of aluminum, three domestic departments have spoken out this week to emphasize the consolidation of the results of resolving excess capacity of electrolytic aluminum.Shanghai AluminumStimulated by this news, it stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum fell slightly this week, and the impact of the epidemic on the arrival of mainstream consumption still exists. In view of the decline in the downstream receiving sentiment, on-demand procurement is still the main focus. The short-term fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2212 contract is expected to be 18,600-19,500 yuan/ton.
For tin, which has continued to strengthen in recent days, Sun Weidong, a non-ferrous analyst at the Orient Securities Futures Derivatives Research Institute, believes that the main thrust of this round of tin price rises comes from overseas. The LME tin ingot inventory has continued to be depleted in the near future, and has now fallen back to 3475 tons, which is 3 Lowest in a month and a half. “The continuous depletion of overseas inventories shows that with the decline in prices and the inflow of a large amount of tin products into the country, the contradiction between supply and demand overseas has been repaired to a certain extent.” Tin prices provide a good upside environment.
“The decline in U.S. CPI data in October far exceeded market expectations, and the decline in PPI expanded more than expected, leading to a slowdown in the market’s expectations of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish interest rate hike.” Liu Yinan, a researcher at Everbright Futures Tin, told reporters that U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar index fell rapidly at the same time. This led to an increase in market risk appetite. The three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded collectively, and the U.S. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also followed the low rise. However, tin has halved since the year’s high of around 400,000 yuan/ton. The low absolute price, the extremely low domestic dominant inventory, the large number of LME outbounds for several days, and the low rebound of the semiconductor index have jointly pushed up the market. Be more emotional.
“Domestic aspect, early NovemberHuxiThe position around 150,000 yuan/ton is quite a strong support level. On the one hand, this is the domestic ore cost support level expected by the market; on the other hand, 150,000 yuan/ton is also an important long-term technical support level. “Sun Weidong added. He introduced that the recent domestic tin ingot production has shown a slight increase trend. In October, domestic refined tin production was 16,746 tons, an increase of 11% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 16%. The performance of the consumer side in the past two months has been relatively stable. The downstream maintains a certain amount of just-needed purchases and has a high willingness to purchase low-priced goods. Domestic supply and demand remain stable overall, making social inventory changes little and remain low. This year, domestic imports of refined tin have generally maintained several thousand tons per month Since November, the profit of domestic tin ingot imports has gradually dropped from more than 10,000 yuan/ton to around 2,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure on long-term tin ingot imports has dropped significantly. This makes the domestic tin ingot supply face certain tight expectations, so the domestic tin ingot The price also rose with the price of the external market.
Regarding the market outlook, Liu Yinan said that from the supply side, although the tin ore processing fee has been reduced rapidly in the past month, it has not been seen from the start of smelters in October and November, and there is a trend of upward adjustment of some smelting starts. In terms of import supplementation, Indonesia’s domestic export volume in October was about 3,500 tons, while the cumulative outbound volume of LME Malaysia’s Port Klang warehouse since the “October” was about 1,625 tons. Taken together, it is conservatively estimated that imports in November will increase to about 4,500 tons. “After the massive inflow of imported tin ingots, the weakened spot premium will be hit harder, while the monthly price difference in the internal market is currently only 100 yuan, and it is more likely to switch back to Contango from Back in the past two years in the later period, which is more likely. It is conducive to hedging for smelting companies.” He said that on the demand side, except for the increase in the amount of photovoltaic solder, other downstream orders for traditional electronic solder are still weak.
In general, Sun Weidong believes that the global tin price will continue to run relatively strong in the short term against the backdrop of warmer macro sentiment at home and abroad. However, considering that the global demand is generally weak and the downstream has a low ability to accept price increases, it is cautious to expect tin prices in the medium and long term. Liu Yinan also believes that the recent cooling of U.S. inflation and domestic growth stabilization policies have frequently occurred, and the warming macro sentiment may dominate the price trend in the short term. However, the current fundamentals of tin have not improved, and the increase in supply has continued, while the demand has not strengthened. This price increase is more regarded as a short-term rebound.
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