Source: Huarong Rongda Futures Author: Huarong Rongda Futures
Research report text
【Market review】
The main contract of the screw thread continued to rise at night, and fell back at the opening of the morning, and then rose again near the lunch break; the final price of the thread 2305 contract closed at 4373 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51%;Hot rollThe 2305 contract price closed at 4467 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.63%.
【Spot Overview】
The spot price of steel has been raised as a whole, and the spot transaction is average; among them, the price of Shanghai threaded HRB400E20MM is 4420 yuan/ton (+20), the price of 4.75 Shanghai hot coil is 4480 yuan/ton (+10), and the spot transaction volume of steel and silver is 283095 tons (-137338).
【Market analysis】
Today, the price of coiled snails is fluctuating; from the perspective of fundamental data, the growth rate of steel production has slowed down, but the profitability of steel mills is still in the process of repairing, and subsequent production may continue to rebound slightly; in terms of demand, threaded tables need to exceed expectations. The speed of inventory depletion has accelerated again, the market sentiment has improved, and spot transactions have rebounded. In February, PMI and social financing data have exceeded expectations. Commercial housing transactions in first- and second-tier cities have rebounded, infrastructure investment has increased, and demand recovery expectations have strengthened; The price of coke is gradually weakening,iron oreThe hype behavior has raised concerns, but steel mills are in the rhythm of resuming production, and there is some support for the demand for raw materials; overall, the fundamentals of steel are in a situation of double increase in supply and demand, downstream construction is gradually entering the peak season, demand verification is on, and the focus is on demand recovery. , Favorable real estate policies, short-term market or strong shocks.
【Strategic advice】wait and see
【risk warning】Demand picks up less than expected
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