The price of milk in Italy is under pressure to increase production – which has brought the percentage of self-sufficiency to 90.95 -, while production costs have increased in recent months, driven in particular by the increases in corn and soybean prices. Yet, some cautious glimmer of optimism could come from the increase in consumption of dairy products, the resumption of exports (especially cheeses) and the reopening of Horeca and Food service, privileged channels for the consumption of quality cheeses made in Italy. This was revealed – based on Clal.it and Teseo data – by Fieragricola, the biennial international exhibition dedicated to agriculture, scheduled at Veronafiere from 26 to 29 January 2022.
Let’s start with the positive signs. Italy in 2020, milk production exceeded 12.65 million tons, with an acceleration of 4.4% on 2019 and accelerated production rates also in 2021: + 3% in January on a trend basis. Geographically, the block of the Northern regions produces 84% of Italian milk and Lombardy alone accounts for 44% of national volumes. According to Clal analysts, Italy could achieve self-sufficiency next year at current production rates. If this is the case, then Italy would reduce imports of raw materials from abroad. It is possible to see, by analyzing the Clal data, that in the last ten years the import of bulk milk in tanks (the so-called “spot milk”) has decreased by one million tons in the last 10 years. In 2020 alone, the decline was 300,000 tons and, if the prices of foreign milk were to remain higher than the Italian one, it would in fact be anti-economic to buy it.
On a global level, last year, the global demand for dairy products grew by 2% overall, despite the difficulties related to Covid (logistics, higher transport costs, Horeca and Food service in many countries closed due to lockdown). The global trade was mainly driven by the response supported by South-East Asia and China, which led the locomotive with + 23.4% of imports between December 2020 and February 2021 on a trend basis. The Chinese market has also proved interesting for the European Union, which in the period January-December 2020 recorded an overall increase in exports of 3.5% over 2019, thanks in particular to the sales of fresh cheeses (+17 , 5 percent).
Italy also saw foreign sales of cheeses grow: + 1.7%, after a rise of 7.5% in 2019. Fresh mozzarella, Grana Padano and Parmigiano Reggiano, fresh cheeses and grated cheeses were found to be, on the basis of the data processed by Clal for Fieragricola, the main categories sold in volume. In particular, exports last December of Grana Padano and Parmigiano Reggiano (they have a single customs code) were very positive, with + 12.7% on a trend basis.
Demand that appears to be dynamic again at this stage should support the price of milk or, alternatively, keep it stable and prevent the market from collapsing. Are you all right then? According to the researchers, “the higher costs of the food ration with a consequent lower economic marginality, the progressive closure of stables, the difficulties associated with generational turnover and, last but not least, the” environmental issue “raised by citizens are slowing down – at least in this phase – the productive push in Europe ». According to the Clal Team «it would be advisable to evaluate both synergies with companies from other European countries and European measures in defense of milk production, ie aimed at balancing supply with demand. At the same time, the European Union should favor the production of cheeses and products with high added value ”.
From this point of view comes from Cilento the news of the marriage between buffalo milk mozzarella and excellent extra virgin olive oil. The “Cuordolio” product was born from an idea of Silvia Chirico, a dairy entrepreneur from Ascea Marina (Salerno) and Nicolangelo Marsicani, an oil entrepreneur from Sicili (Salerno).