Istat speaks of “signs of deceleration” of economic activity e Moody’s evaluates the prospects for the Italian rating as “negative”. Previously the assigned outlook was “stable”. The revision is explained by the fact that “the end of the government Draghi and the early elections of September 25, 2022 increase political uncertainty “in a difficult context, but it is contested by the Ministry of Economy, which defines it as” questionable “. “Even in a time of economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions at the international level, accompanied by the uncertainty relating to the political elections of 25 September, Italy’s economic conditions do not justify this orientation”, he writes in a note he Mef recalling the record growth of 6.6% of GDP last year and that already achieved for 2022 of 3.4%, higher than expected.
A fact that is also confirmed by Istat’s economic note, which however, just as the premier had done Draghi in the press conference on Aid Thursday does not hide the “clouds on the horizon”. In fact, if employment is at the highest levels of the last 45 years until June, signs of “deceleration” are already emerging. To suggest that the second half of the year will go worse than it did in the first five to six months, is the data on industrial production, down in June for the second consecutive month. The seasonally adjusted index falls by 2.1% compared to May, with a “negative trend extended to almost all sectors, with the exception of the energy sector”, underlines the Institute of Statistics. In the annual comparison, industrial production drops by 1.2%, only in this case, in addition to energy goods, consumer goods are growing, from textiles to electronics. Other important negative signals come from the increase in the trade deficit and the marked deterioration in consumer confidence. Families see black on both the economic climate and the future. It is difficult to blame them, given that inflation shows the first signs of cooling, also thanks to the measures adopted by the government to contain the increases in electricity and gas bills, but the index of processed food in July was close to 10% and , more generally, the shopping cart continues to run, the increases have exceeded 9%.
Businesses are also not very convinced. To see pink only those of the construction sector, even if a part denounces the existence of obstacles to production. The manufacturing and services sectors, on the other hand, show a marked decline in confidence. In the euro area there is a similar trend: against a growth in GDP in the second quarter of 0.7% in economic terms, accelerating on the previous quarter, now there is a worsening of the outlook. The index of the economic confidence Esi of the EU Commissionrecalls Istat, has in fact reached the minimum since February 2021.