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The movements of soldiers, satellite photos and statements by the main political and military leaders show that Israel would be ready to attack Rafah, the last city in the southern Gaza Strip which the Israeli army has not yet entered, and where it approximately 1.4 million Palestinian civilians are refugees.
The Rafah attack has been confirmed several times by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who considers it an essential element of the Israeli mission to destroy Hamas’ infrastructure and military strength in the Strip. At the same time, for months now the United States and other allies of Israel have been trying to avoid it, arguing that it would cause a massacre of civilians: Rafah is an overcrowded city full of refugees, and a military attack could be disastrous. Despite this, various moves appear to show that Israel is completing preparations for a military operation.
First of all, satellite photos show that for days now Israel has been preparing refugee camps that should house Palestinian civilians fleeing from Rafah once the attack begins. The Defense Ministry said it had purchased 40,000 tents, each with a capacity of 10–12 people, and various media outlets confirmed, using satellite images, that Israel is building tent cities in some areas of the Gaza Strip, particularly in Khan Yunis, a town about five kilometers north of Rafah, which had been occupied in recent months by the army.
Another area that is being talked about as a possible destination for civilians who will be displaced from Rafah is the locality of Al Mawasi, which is located on the coast also at Khan Yunis. Al Mawasi had already been designated a safe zone in recent months, although on some occasions Israel has it anyway bombed.
Satellite photos of a tent city built outside Rafah (Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies via AP)
According to various critics, these Israeli evacuation plans (which however have not been confirmed by the government) would not be sufficient to avoid a humanitarian disaster in Rafah. First of all, the tents prepared are few: considering the declared capacity, Israel has tents for less than 500 thousand people, while the civilians in Rafah are 1.4 million (it is true, however, that even in previous attacks on other cities only a portion of the inhabitants has moved). Secondly, so far these evacuation operations have often been complicated and dangerous. Israel tells residents to leave by dropping leaflets or by telephone, but very often these announcements do not arrive, or arrive late, and escape routes are risky.
Complicating matters is the fact that Palestinian civilians would have to be moved to areas that have already been devastated by war, or are already overcrowded and unfit to accommodate them. For example, the Al Mawasi area, which is indicated as one of the possible destinations, has long been full of refugees, and fundamental infrastructures such as toilets and clean water are already lacking.
Another element that suggests that an attack on Rafah is close is the fact that the Israeli army has called two reservist brigades into service, in all likelihood preparing for new military operations. The brigades are made up of a group of between 2 and 4 thousand soldiers. Reservists are Israeli citizens who have completed compulsory military service and who can be called up to temporarily return to the army for exercises or in the event of a crisis.
A family prepares food among the ruins of some homes in Rafah (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)
According to the Israeli government and army, an attack on Rafah is necessary because large Hamas forces would still be present in the city: Israel he claims of having dismantled 20 of the 24 battalions of which the Hamas fighting force was composed, and that the remaining four would all be in Rafah, reinforced by fighters who would have fled from other areas of the Strip.
Another indication that an attack could be near is also the fact that on Wednesday Hamas published the video of a hostage, the Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin, kidnapped during the Hamas assault on the Supernova music festival, the last October 7th. Goldberg-Polin, who is 24 years old, was seriously injured during the attack, and nothing more had been heard of him since then: in the video he appears with part of his left arm amputated, and asks the Israeli government to find an agreement for the release of the hostages.
Among other things, Goldberg-Polin says in the video that Israeli bombing killed around 70 hostages (of the 130 believed to still be in the Gaza Strip). It’s an impossible number to confirm, especially since Goldberg-Polin clearly shot the video under duress, but it’s probably a sign that Hamas is trying to arouse a reaction from the Israeli public in view of the attack on Rafah. After the video was published, hundreds of people in Israel they took to the streets to demonstratedemanding the release of the hostages.