On its second day of trading following the suspension triggered by the start of the war in Ukraine, the MOEX index of the Moscow exchange immediately turned around, losing 3.66% to 2,484.13 points.
Yesterday the index closed in positive territory, up 4.4%, however retracing the strong gains at the start of the session, when it was up more than 10%.
The moves of the Russian central bank led by Elvira Nabiullina, which decided to restart trading on Russian shares in yesterday’s session, Thursday 24 March, after a stop that lasted about a month, however, prohibiting short selling, fueled the buy’s. and also preventing foreign investors from selling their shares. This last measure, decided at the end of February, will continue until next April 1st.
It must also be said that the Moscow Exchange has established the reopening of trading of 33 of the 50 overall stocks listed on the MOEX index.
Sales on gas giant Gazprom, oil producer Lukoil and bank Sberbank prevailed today. Well PhosAgro instead.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova, economists of the IIF (Institute of International Finance), commented in a note reported by Bloomberg that they expect Russia’s GDP to contract by 15% in 2022, and by 3% in 2023, due to Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, thus antagonizing the whole world.
Economists have issued a preliminary outlook on the impact of the war; the forecasts could therefore also worsen, in the event of further sanctions.
What is clear is that if GDP contracted at the estimated rate, its value would drop to what it was 15 years ago.
“The negative effect on the medium-long term prospects could be even more important,” warned the two IIF experts.