Mps without suitors, even more alone after the dossier Unipol-Banca Popolare di Sondrio, which has rekindled the bet on the creation of a third banking pole in Italy which sees it largely absent, contrary to the bets, until a few months ago, on the markets.
The Monte dei Paschi stock, which in yesterday’s session was confirmed as the black jersey of the Ftse Mib, with a loss of 5.6%, is also losing ground in today’s session of Piazza Affari, falling by around 1.6%.
It must be said that, on the eve, the sell-off had hit all the securities of Italian banks, leading UniCredit to slide by around 5%.
Strong sales also on Banco BPM -3% and Bper (-3.6%): the latter was therefore unable to benefit from the bets on the markets which, immediately after the indiscretions reported by the newspaper The Republic – have revived the old scenario of a marriage between the Modenese bank and Pop of Sondrio.
The same race of the shares of the Valtellina bank, which had opened the session of Piazza Affari with an increase of almost 9%, then flared up significantly, paying for the worsening of Piazza Affari, and closing with an increase equal to just + 1.50%.l
Mps and the missing white knight. Hypothesis sale of tranches from the Mef
An article published on “Very Economy” by Il Messaggero today indicates that the Treasury would be working at this point on a plan aimed at placing tranches of MPS of 10-15% at a time on the market, at a discount, recalling that, in January of this year, it was Allianz that sold the market on 7 .9% of the Monte, with a 15% discount.
In the absence of suitors for the Mount, like this the Treasury would be able to respect the agreements with Europe in this way, given that the deadline to privatize Monte di Stato has been extended, thanks to the OK from the DG Comp, to June 2024: a date which, with no white knight standing out on the horizon, is not that far away.
In short, the Meloni government does not have much time to solve the grain of the mountain.
For this reason, the option, in the absence of offers, could become that of disinvest shares of Mps by placing tranches directly on the market.
Via XX Settembre, reports MoltoEconomia, could in the end retain, after having placed the shares of Mps on the market, a stake of 15-20%.
The article explains the options you have to resolve the eternal impasse of Monte dei Paschi, still in the hands of the State since 2017, the year in which the EU gave its consent to the precautionary recapitalization of the Sienese bank, and in a context in which, from the recent edition of the Ambrosetti Forum which was held as every year in Cernobbio, it emerged that the Meloni government (or rather the League) he doesn’t even have all this desire to get rid of the hot potato.
“We will solve it quietly, but without letting anyone dictate the times, let alone haste, regarding the banking system. And that’s not all,” said the Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti, after the declarations arrived from other exponents of the League as from the deputy, vice president of the finance commission and head of the party’s economics department, Alberto Bagnai who, in a note, wrote as follows:
“As well as the privatization of the ports, already suitably denied by the premier, also the sale of the quota of Monte dei Paschi it is not on the agenda. The Government has a duty to investigate the dossiers and discuss them carefully and confidentially”.
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With Pop Sondrio-Bper bets, Mps left on the bench in the match?
MoltoEconomia (Il Messaggero) referred to those “white knights who are loath” to take on the Monte dei Paschi di Siena which, in the end, probably, is not that “coveted prey” of which the Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti just spoke a few months ago.
And, therefore, perhaps nor is it the pivot around which the third banking pole will be bornseen yesterday the ‘surprise’ Unipol-Popolare di Sondrio, which rekindled the bets on a marriage between the Valtellinese bank and Bper, another institution which, like Pop Sondrio, sees Unipol as the majority shareholder.
Everything has begun with an article in the Republicwhich reported the rumors of a request from the Bolognese insurance company led by the CEO Carlo Cimbri, to the ECB, to climb into Popolare di Sondrio, up to 20% of the capital, from the current 9.5%.
Unipol itself then came out into the open with a note, which confirmed its intention to further increase the share capital of the Valtellinese bank.
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At that point, the markets discounted the failure of the Bper hypothesis in the role of potential buyer of Monte dei Paschi, for the creation of that banking center which, according to the first statements of the Meloni government, would have been focused on the acquisition, by an Italian bank, of the Sienese institute.
The impression is that Mps was left on the bench in that banking risk game that has been talked about a lot so far, in the face of few facts.
Today, Monte’s shares are confirmed again among the worst of the Ftse Mib, limiting the damage, compared to yesterday, to a drop of -1.6%.
The share of Popolare di Sondrio rises by more than 2%, while Bper moves back by more than half a percentage point.
Equita: overhang risk for the Monte dei Paschi title
Equita reported today the various press rumors that emerged today on the future of Mps:
“After the rumors, subsequently confirmed, of Unipol’s request to further increase the share capital of Popolare di Sondrio and the speculations regarding a possible merger between Bper and Popolare di Sondriovarious articles in the press focus on Mps and the alternatives that the Mef could consider for a state exit from the bank’s capital”.
“In particular, The messenger highlights how – in the absence of a partner for a possible aggregation – the Mef is working for place tranches of 10-15% at a timeallowing the state to gradually dilute and maintain a final share of 15-20% (from 64% today).”
“Likewise – underlines Equita – a reduction of the share through placements on the market, second The printcould allow the government to negotiate longer timescales with the ECB for the complete exit of the state from the bank’s capital, thus going beyond the (unofficial) deadline of 2024″.
From Equita SIM they reiterate that “the placement of a significant share on the market without identifying a strategic partner could lead to an overhang risk for the stock”.