Continental universities continue to expand enrollment, leading to new highs in graduates every year. Tens of millions of graduates are about to enter the society this year, and people say that they will be unemployed upon graduation. The picture shows college students in Beijing. (Wang Zhao/AFP)
[The Epoch Times, April 20, 2023](Epoch Times reporters Cheng Jing and Luo Ya interviewed and reported) The Chinese Communist Party recently released economic data for March, in which the youth unemployment rate was as high as 19.6%. The analysis believes that this is related to multiple factors such as industry shrinkage; the CCP is also using “enrollment expansion” to delay the solution to the unemployment problem, and the unemployment data is not true; China’s true unemployment rate has always been a mystery.
Urban Unemployment Rate Cannot Reflect Real Unemployment Data
The National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China released the economic data for the first quarter on Tuesday (18th). In terms of the unemployment rate, the national urban surveyed average unemployment rate was 5.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter of the previous year. In March, the national surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
In addition, the youth unemployment rate is still high. In March, the unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 was 19.6%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from February, that is, one out of every five young people was unemployed; the highest since August 2022. new highs.
Cai Shenkun, an independent commentator, told The Epoch Times on April 19 that, first of all, the urban unemployment rate cannot reflect the real unemployment data.
“The CCP’s urban survey unemployment rate statistics method is very special. It only counts the registered unemployed population with urban household registration, and those who do not register are not counted as unemployed. Moreover, the rural household registration belongs to the rural labor force and is not included in the statistical scope. This led to the past The unemployment rate has been maintained between 4% and 5%, which does not reflect the real unemployment data at all.”
Cai Shenkun said that behind the employment data is the survival plight of thousands of families. If the family conditions are better, they can let their children take the postgraduate entrance examination at home and take another one or two years; if the conditions are poor, they can only do it after graduating from university. Some low-paying low-skilled jobs in order to make ends meet.
“Enrollment expansion” to solve unemployment?The number of postgraduate graduates will exceed that of undergraduates
Furthermore, Cai Shenkun believes that the CCP’s continuous expansion of undergraduate and postgraduate enrollment has covered up the youth unemployment rate.
According to the official division, the age group with the highest unemployment rate is young people aged 16-24, who are students of all kinds of schools, from high school to postgraduate.
“China News Weekly” recently reported that China began to expand university enrollment in the late 1990s, and the number of new students increased by more than 40% within one year. As of 2021, there will be about 44 million undergraduates in Chinese universities, compared with only 4 million at the beginning of this century.
This year, according to data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the number of college graduates will reach 11.58 million, a new high. At the same time, the number of applicants for postgraduate entrance examinations in 2023 will reach 4.74 million, which was only 3.41 million three years ago.
It is worth noting that, while the number of graduates is at a record high, the number of graduates (Masters and PhDs) is expected to exceed that of undergraduates for the first time. For the first time this year, the number of graduate students (Masters and Ph.D.) in Beijing surpassed that of undergraduates.
According to data from the Beijing Municipal Education Commission, colleges and universities in Beijing are expected to graduate about 296,000 this year, including more than 160,000 postgraduates, 30,000 more than undergraduates. Since 2020, the number of graduates expected to graduate has been higher than that of undergraduates for three consecutive years, and the gap has widened from 4,213 to 19,082.
Cai Shenkun believes that, in a sense, the expansion of university enrollment is to delay employment and delay employment pressure, which has also made China’s true unemployment rate a mystery.
China’s working-age population is 880 million according to the Bureau of Statistics. According to this figure, he said, the number of unemployed people at this stage is 46.64 million. The Chinese Communist Party also officially admits that there are as many as 200 million people in flexible employment.
Regarding the fact that the CCP’s expansion of enrollment is to delay the solution to the employment problem, Qiu Wanjun, a professor of finance at Northeastern University in Boston, analyzed to The Epoch Times on April 19 that this is very likely.
“Because it uses the power of the state to keep students and young people in school, at least the unemployment rate can be reduced. Students in school will not be included in the calculation of the unemployment rate of the labor force. If they stay in school, the base will be relatively low. la,” he said.
Unemployment after graduation is related to many factors such as industry shrinkage
Regarding the persistently high youth unemployment rate, Qiu Wanjun analyzed that there are several main factors. First, in any country, the young population is in the age range from 16 to 24, and the unemployment rate is generally much higher than the average unemployment rate in their country. Rate.
Taking the United States as an example, the current unemployment rate in the United States is about 3.5%, but the unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 is 9.4%, and the next level is 4.3% for those aged 25 to 29. When the age of 45 and above is over, the entire unemployment rate is Only 2.6%, “so this is not a phenomenon unique to China”.
However, Qiu Wanjun said that what is more worrying is that the overall youth unemployment rate is so high, which means that the main jobs of young people in the job market are related to the Internet, education, entertainment, etc., and may also be related to the technology industry. disappear, manpower demand becomes relatively light.
What does this mean? “These areas in China may show a relatively shrinking situation, and the number of employed people has stagnated, which has also resulted in a high unemployment rate among the young population.” He said.
In recent years, it has been reported that there are doctoral and master graduates who go to takeaway because they can’t find a professional job. Qiu Wanjun said, “It’s really strange if even college students and graduate students go to work as delivery boys or delivery girls. Phenomenon.”
There is a rumor circulating on the Internet in mainland China that “you will be unemployed after graduation.” Qiu Wanjun said, “It may not be such a common situation in the United States.”
In addition, young people are the main force of consumption. Qiu Wanjun said that the high unemployment rate will most directly affect consumption. Not only current consumption, but also future consumption will be affected.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China, China’s consumer confidence index rarely falls below 120% in the few years before 2022; it rarely falls below 100% from 2000 to 2018; Seems to have fallen below 90%, and it has not improved until this year, but the latest data is only 94.7%.
“This number shows a problem in the job market,” Qiu Wanjun said. This will cause ordinary people to hold back on consumption. “Especially for people with a relatively high unemployment rate or a relatively uncertain job market, they may be more conservative in consumption. Savings will also be affected, which of course will have a negative impact on the overall economy.”
What’s more, the high or rising unemployment rate coincides with the epidemic in the past three years, the CCP’s strict blockade, severe suppression of private enterprises, etc., all of which are related to the economic downturn.
Qiu Wanjun said, “The investigation, arrest, or silencing of some important business giants will of course have some impact. For example, Bao Fan’s whereabouts are still unknown so far, and Ma Yun’s return to China is obviously lower than a few years ago,” etc., which has hit investors’ confidence .
In addition, he said, “From a sociological point of view, of course, it will also have a negative impact on social stability. Political pressure cannot really solve economic problems.”
Responsible editor: Lin Yan#