Towards the end of the year, Daxinzu has once again ushered in a feast. The 50 billion yuan Industrial Convertible Bonds will be purchased online next Monday. Although many details have yet to be finalized, the agency predicts that the new launch is expected to be “two in one.”
50 billion yuan “Big Mac”
The Industrial Bank issued 50 billion yuan of convertible bonds, referred to as Industrial Convertible Bonds, with a rating of AAA. This is also one of the largest convertible bonds in the convertible bond market. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank also issued 50 billion convertible bonds before.
A person from a financial institution said that the issuance plan of Industrial Convertible Bonds of 50 billion yuan was quickly approved for issuance, which made the market feel that the pace of the issuance may be faster than expected.
According to the announcement, on December 6, the issuance of Industrial Convertible Bonds had just passed the issuance review meeting, and the issuance approval was obtained on the 15th. The above-mentioned financial institutions said that, generally speaking, it usually takes about a month from the meeting to the approval. “At present, if the issuance goes smoothly, it is expected to be listed before the Spring Festival.”
The winning rate is geometric
Industry insiders analyzed that the online purchase of Industrial Convertible Bonds is expected to reproduce the high-to-mid-sign rate of bank convertible bonds.
Data shows that since May this year, there has been no new bond break in the convertible bond market. After deducting some varieties with questionable qualifications, the current market for varieties under 105 yuan is very rare.
However, due to the many variables in this issuance, many details have yet to be clarified. Therefore, the winning rate is still difficult to accurately measure.
According to the issuance announcement, the scale of the Industrial Convertible Bond issuance is 50 billion yuan, part of which is priority placement by old shareholders, followed by offline subscription and online subscription.
According to data, at present, the top ten shareholders of Industrial Bank hold a total of 47.79% of the shares, but the bank has not clarified whether the top ten shareholders participate in the priority placement. The market generally expects that about 60% of old shareholders may participate in the placement in order to obtain 30 billion yuan of convertible bonds. “But there are still variables. First, the degree of participation of small and medium shareholders is not easy to estimate; second, the largest shareholder has not made it clear whether to participate.” The above-mentioned person said.
The remaining part of the convertible bonds will be shared by offline and online investors. However, because the top grid of a single account is too large, it also increases the difficulty of offline measurement. One change in the offline issuance is that the ceiling of a single institution’s subscription ceiling has been raised to 5 billion yuan, which has greatly increased the participation of institutions. “However, due to the new regulatory regulations, the actual purchase scale can only be the upper limit of the investor’s asset scale. It is expected that the scale of participation may be greatly reduced, which undoubtedly increases the difficulty of estimation.” The above-mentioned person said.
Relatively speaking, the enthusiasm for online purchase is relatively stable. Data shows that after November, the number of new convertible bonds online has been firmly established at 10 million, and the purchase scale is basically locked at 10 trillion yuan.
The above-mentioned person stated that, based on the above judgment, it is expected that the success rate of the Industrial Convertible Bond may be above 0.05%. If important shareholders abandon the placement, the winning rate may be higher. A brokerage person said that due to certain unpredictable factors in the winning rate, many corporate clients are preparing more funds in order to achieve a higher winning rate.
However, the market also has different views. According to estimates by Shenwan Hongyuan’s fixed income team, the remaining online and offline purchases of Industrial Convertible Bonds may range from 17 billion yuan to 23 billion yuan, and the purchase funds range from 24.8 trillion yuan to 29.3 trillion yuan. Therefore, it is expected that this time The rate of winning a new lottery varies from 0.058% to 0.093%.
Based on multiple perspectives, the online new investors of Industrial Convertible Bonds are expected to be “one in two households”.
Bank convertible debt remains high
In addition to the winning rate, the market is also concerned about the profitability of the new deal.
“When the total nominal purchase capital of Industrial Convertible Bonds is 27 trillion yuan and the remaining available subscription amount is 20 billion yuan, the winning rate is 0.074%. When the first day’s increase is 6%, the expected value of online purchase income from full investors is 44 yuan, the purchase income of the full offline subscription is 221,400 yuan.” The analysis report of the fixed income team of Shenwan Hongyuan said.
Liang Fengjie, a researcher at Zheshang Securities Bank, said that the Industrial Bank should be considered from a longer-term perspective. The company is currently at the starting point of a new decade of development. She believes that there are investment opportunities in the future for new assets represented by green finance, and this is precisely the advantage of Industrial Bank. In addition, Industrial Bank’s “commercial bank + investment bank” strategy is expected to advance faster than expected. Driven by multiple positives, Industrial Bank’s ROE (return on equity) is expected to rebound on a trend.
According to industry insiders, after the issuance of RMB 50 billion Industrial Convertible Bonds, the issuance of convertible bonds by Bank of Chengdu, Bank of Chongqing and Bank of Changshu will follow. The weight of bank convertible bonds in the convertible bond market will remain high.Return to Sohu to see more
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