The brutal Russian aggression of Ukraine also has growing repercussions outside Eastern Europe, in the political, economic, social, legal and humanitarian spheres. In this context, the first and most urgent Ukrainian request for direct military support from the West needs to be re-examined. Shortly after the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, Kyiv has launched an international campaign to establish a no-fly-zone over Ukraine.
While I understand the fears of Ukrainians, NATO and its member countries quickly rejected Kyiv’s proposaldeeming it too risky. Even the possibility of only partially satisfying the Ukrainian request by declaring, for example, some parts of the western Ukrainian hinterland as a no-fly-zone, was considered outside the national interests of the NATO member states. Such schematic reasoning was already questionable in 2022. In 2023 it became increasingly questionable.
Not only Ukrainian interests
An active military engagement on the territories bordering with Ukraine, with fighter planes and anti-aircraft weapons, by Western countries and other interested countries, would not only satisfy the Ukrainian cry for help. Russia’s war against the Ukrainian state, economy and population affects the interests of many nations outside Eastern Europe. The national interests of Ukraine and many other countries of the world are aligned in at least four respects and therefore require direct action:
First, Ukraine’s ability to continue collect and export food products, especially cereals, is not only linked to worrying humanitarian issues. Indeed, it is also a necessary condition for the maintenance of stability and world order. A shortage and further increase in the prices of basic foodstuffs, such as flour and bread, would have serious transcontinental repercussions. These could include governmental instabilities, armed conflicts, migration flows, increased xenophobia and even civil or interstate wars.
The use of Western and non-Western air and anti-aircraft power to help Ukraine secure food production and exports is therefore not just a matter of empathy or charity for Ukrainians. The direct use of NATO and non-NATO military forces would be justified by the need to minimize risks to international food security. Preventing hunger and its destructive consequences for the global order is, in itself, reason enough to consider creating no-fly-areas over and around Ukraine. Such measures could be justified without even mentioning the Ukrainian request, but only by reference to broader national and transnational concerns.
Secondly, since the beginning of the Russian invasion, nuclear power plants in Ukraine – including the unused nuclear power plant in Chernobyl – have repeatedly become sites, theatres, targets and instruments of Russian military activity. The cross-border risks arising from this behavior to the health of not only millions of Ukrainians, but also citizens of several NATO member states are obvious. When Ukraine called for a no-fly zone in 2022, it was surprising that the considerable interest of many European states in the security of Ukrainian radioactive material remained unnoticed.
Thirdly, since October 2022, the city of Kyiv has become a favorite target of Russian missiles and drones (as I have seen many times offline). Whether intentional or not, Russian rockets and UAVs have repeatedly struck purely civilian infrastructure and killed non-combatants. Homes are often damaged or residents of Kyiv injured by falling debris from intercepted Russian missiles and drones and by Ukrainian anti-aircraft munitions.
Kyiv is home to dozens of foreign embassies and consulates and the offices of numerous Western and non-Western governmental and non-governmental organizations. Strangely, the safety of hundreds, if not thousands, of citizens of NATO and non-NATO countries in Kyiv depends entirely on the Ukrainian “iron dome” over the capital. Numerous diplomats and other government officials, permanently or temporarily in Kiev, represent countries with advanced air and anti-aircraft forces. However, these seconded officials, as well as other foreign taxpayers, so far they have not been able to count on the protection of the armed forces of their countries neither for the journey to Kiev, nor for travel within the city. This, despite the explicit request of the Ukrainian government.
Last but not least is starting the campaign of reconstruction, modernization and Europeanization of Ukraine. It is a campaign involving an increasing number of Western and non-Western presences and investments throughout the country. Billions of euros and taxpayers’ dollars will go towards demining, repairing and rebuilding Ukraine. This will increase the interest of many Western and some non-Western countries in restoring basic security in Ukraine.
If Russia’s campaign of terror in Ukraine, with long-range missiles and drones, continues, protecting internationally funded civilian infrastructure from attack will become increasingly relevant. Western governments and citizens may wonder what will happen to the various projects they fund. Will they have a lasting effect or will they be neutralized sooner or later by Russian terrorist attacks?
No-fly zone does not mean third world war
Many observers see the western implementation of no-fly-areas, even just over the Ukrainian hinterland, as a direct road to World War III. However, such an escalation is unlikely to occur until Western troops are engaged in front-line fighting. Russia has not used fighter jets for its intrusions into the Ukrainian rear airspace. Russian terror attacks on cities and smaller settlements in the Ukrainian hinterland are carried out exclusively with missiles and drones.
If Western fighter planes and anti-aircraft rockets or shells hit Russian flying objects, they would not kill Russian soldiers. Note in this context that in 2015, the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian fighter over Syria and the pilot was killed. Russia has responded to this action by a NATO member state with temporary economic sanctions against Turkey. Putin soon re-established full, and indeed friendly, relations with Erdogan as if nothing had happened.
New debates are needed by international diplomats, military experts, national parliamentarians and the public media on Ukraine’s call for a no-fly-zone. These national and multilateral discussions must weigh the costs, rewards and risks of implementing Kyiv’s original or altered request.
It is necessary to identify Ukrainian objects and territories that are of great importance to NATO or EU member states and other nations. A comprehensive, rational and unemotional assessment of the new situation in 2023 it should clarify which national interests of Western and non-Western countries are at stake, and what will be won or lost by establishing no-fly-areas. On this basis organizations such as the UN, NATO and the EU should act, or a coalition of the willing.
Cover photo JAPAN’S DEFENSE MINISTRY JOINT STAFF