Original title: Non-agricultural data brings uncertainty to gold Gold priceShocked around 1810
At the beginning of Thursday, the requested data fell to the lowest level since the epidemic, which brought certain pressure on gold prices. The price of gold fell slightly, but the upcoming non-agricultural data brought great uncertainty to the price of gold, making the bears afraid to enter the market. On Friday (September 3), the US dollar fell under pressure, and gold prices continued to fluctuate around 1810.
The latest report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week of August 28 was 340,000, which fell to the lowest level since the week of March 14, 2020. This is the labor market’s gradual progress from the new crown epidemic. Another sign of improvement, previously expected 345,000 people, the previous value of 353,000. On Friday, the US Department of Labor will release its monthly employment report, which will show the performance of the US labor market in September. Economists predict that the number of new jobs in the United States last month was 720,000, and the unemployment rate will fall from 5.4% to 5.2%.
This week’s main data is Friday’s U.S. non-agricultural employment report. Fed Chairman Powell said last week that the recovery of the labor market will determine the time frame for asset purchase plans.
At present, the median estimate shows that non-agricultural jobs are expected to increase by 750,000, but the estimated range ranges from an increase of 375,000 to 1.02 million, and the ADP report prompts people to speculate that the risk is downward.
“If the figure is close to 400,000 instead of 800,000, it actually means that the Fed’s conditions for the labor market to’further substantive progress’ will take longer to be realized, thus delaying the decision to reduce debt purchases from September to November 11. Month, “NAB Senior
Rodrigo Catril, a foreign exchange strategist, said. “The bad news in the labor market is good news for risky assets, because for a long time, the glass of joy will continue to be filled.”
“If the number of new jobs exceeds 1 million, it will regain the focus of reducing stimulus, which is not good for gold. If it is around 700,000 or lower, it will alleviate these concerns and support gold,” OANDA Senior Asia Pacific
Market analyst Jeffrey Halley said. He added that gold “lack of the momentum to clearly leave the 100-day and 200-day moving average area.”
Before Friday’s non-agricultural employment data is released, gold is expected to continue to fluctuate sideways. Strategists at OCBC Bank said a strong report may push the price of gold below $1,800.
OCBC Bank said: “In the past three days, the price of gold has not fluctuated much during intraday trading and has been trading above $1,800. We expect this trend to continue until Friday’s employment report.”
Morgan Stanley economists said that the expected slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year will mainly occur in the third quarter, largely due to stimulus spending recovery and continuing supply chain issues. In general, the price of gold is currently at a high level above 1800, waiting for the release of heavy non-agricultural data. The daily trend will largely depend on the quality of non-agricultural. In the medium and long term, as long as the price of gold stays above 1800, there is still a greater chance of rising.
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