Oil prices fluctuate as investors await signals from central banks
On Monday, international oil prices experienced a slight decline as traders eagerly awaited signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank regarding the possibility of interest rate hikes. However, the impact of China’s stimulus measures and tighter supplies helped limit losses in the oil market. Currently, NYMEX crude oil is still holding at a price of $77.71 per barrel.
At 16:16 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures experienced a 0.36% drop, reaching $76.79 a barrel, while ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.32% to $80.62 a barrel.
Last week, both markets saw gains, with NYMEX crude oil and ICE Brent crude futures increasing by 1.5% and 2.2% respectively. These gains marked the fourth consecutive weekly increase, driven by expectations of tightening supply following OPEC+ production cuts. In addition, escalating conflict in Ukraine, which occurred after Russia withdrew from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea food corridor agreement, also served as a factor influencing the market.
Analysts at National Australia Bank commented that the same Fed rate hike may introduce some short-term price volatility, but they anticipate that tightening market conditions, resulting from OPEC+ production cuts and increasing expectations of further stimulus from China, will continue to boost oil prices throughout the third quarter.
Investors have already factored in expectations for a quarter-point rate hike from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Thus, the focus now turns to remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding future policy decisions.
Interim UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei stated on Friday that the current measures taken by OPEC+ to support the oil market are sufficient. However, he added that if any further steps were deemed necessary, a simple phone call could initiate action.
Analyzing the daily line, NYMEX crude oil has embarked on an upward wave III trend, starting from $73.78, with the upper resistance targeting the 38.2% mark at $77.71. On an hourly chart, oil prices have begun an upward trend with ((3)) waves from $74.52, facing an upper resistance at the 100% target of $77.61. ((3)) Waves represent subwaves of wave iii.