NYMEX crude oil prices down to $66.84
On Wednesday (June 28), international oil prices hit a new low in more than two weeks. Although the U.S. API inventory fell more than expected, indicating strong demand, expectations of further interest rate hikes by global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, weighed on the market. NYMEX crude oil prices look at $66.84.
At 16:46 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.74% to $67.20 a barrel; ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.69% to $72.01 a barrel. Both cities hit new lows since June 12, reaching US$67.05/barrel and US$71.86/barrel respectively.
Data released overnight by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.408 million barrels in the week ended June 23, more than the expected drop of 1.467 million barrels. The official Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report will be released at 22:30 Beijing time on Wednesday.
However, due to rising interest rates that have hit investor confidence, international crude oil prices have fallen by more than 16% this year, and the spread structure is positive, that is, the price of the near-month contract is lower than that of the far-month contract, indicating that the market expects sufficient supply.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday (June 27) that stubbornly high inflation will require the central bank to avoid announcing an end to interest rate hikes. The U.S. consumer confidence index for June, released on the same day, also raised concerns that the Fed may have to continue raising interest rates.
Still, Saudi Aramco, the world‘s largest oil company, said this week it believed market fundamentals would remain “solid” in the second half of the year. Some analysts expect the market to tighten in the second half of 2023, due in part to continued OPEC+ cuts and Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cuts in July.
Looking at the daily line, NYMEX crude oil still shows a bearish trend. On the hourly chart, oil prices are looking at $66.84 under short-term support, which is the 61.8% target for wave III starting at $70.15. Wave iii is a sub-wave of wave (iii) started at $75.06.