In the context of increased capital expenditures, the digital income of the three major operators’ industries has also increased significantly, and computing power will become the main growth point of communication this year.
On April 20, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of industry and information technology in the first quarter. The cumulative number of 5G base stations built in the first quarter exceeded 2.64 million. As of the end of 2022, there were 2.312 million 5G base stations, representing over 328,000 new 5G base stations in my country in 23Q1. In the same period last year, only 134,000 5G base stations were built. Tianfeng caliber exceeded previous market expectations.
According to the latest data: the number of ports with gigabit network service capabilities exceeds 17.93 million, the scale of computing power grows rapidly, and network capabilities continue to improve.On April 19, the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission issued a document stating that by the end of 2023, relying on the city’s artificial intelligence public computing power service platform, access and dispatch more than 4 computing power infrastructures, and can dispatch intelligent computing power up to 1000PLOFPS (FP16) above。
Wall Street Insights and Wisdom Research believes that:The density of 5G base stations is still growing. On the basis of reaching 20 per 10,000 people at the end of last year, the construction progress is still very fast this year. The increase in the density of 5G base stations can especially help more vertical industries to accelerate the exploration of the transformation of 5G application scenarios. New and innovative explorations in many scenarios including the real economy, industrial Internet, smart healthcare, education, cultural tourism, and smart cities.
thisoutside,The demand for computing power construction announced by Shanghai will mean that this year’s computing power construction may exceed expectations. In the future, other provinces and cities may also introduce similar plans, and computing power upgrades are also urgent. Under the development trend of breaking latest news, the explosion of computing power growth and the flexibility of computing power scheduling crucial,Computing power will become the main growth point of communication this year.
Specifically,As of the end of March, my country had 620 million 5G mobile phone users, more than 100 million gigabit optical network users, and 1.984 billion mobile Internet of Things users. The proportion of “thing” connections has increased to 53.8%, and the foundation for the Internet of Everything has been further strengthened. At the same time, integrated applications have been deepened and implemented, and 5G applications have covered 52 national economic categories.
In addition, from the Q1 financial reports of the three major operators, it can be seen that the growth of industrial digital business has been further verified. Previously, in the article “China Mobile”‘s imagination of “data elements” entering the downstream, Jianzhi Research has done an analysis. Operators are important participants in the deployment of computing power networks and the market ecology of data elements. Benefit from the rapid development of the industry.
From the specific point of view of the Q1 financial report:
China Mobile: operating income was 250.7 billion, +10.3% year-on-year; main business was 209.8 billion, +8.3% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent was 28.1 billion, +9.5% year-on-year;
Telecom: Operating income was 129.8 billion, +9.4% year-on-year; main business was 118.5 billion, +7.7% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent was 7.984 billion, +10.5% year-on-year;
Unicom: Operating income was 97.2 billion, +9.2% year-on-year; main business was 86.1 billion, +6.1% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent was 2.27 billion, +11.6% year-on-year.
Industry digitization income:
Mobile: DICT business revenue was 29.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, accounting for 14% of the main business;
Telecommunications: Industrial digitization revenue was 35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, accounting for 30% of the main business;
Unicom: Industrial Internet revenue was 22.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, accounting for 26% of the main business.
Wisdom Research believes that:As the infrastructure builder and operator of the communications industry, operators will further serve more enterprises in their digital transformation, and this part of the business will become the largest market for future growth. Previously, we also discussed separately that the demand for enterprise cloud services in various sub-sectors is constantly expanding in the data element market and AI training. Operators will continue to play greater value as a national “computing power transfer station”.
in addition,According to the plan issued by Shanghai, it is pointed out that three kinds of IDC “gradient layout” should be realized, and it is pointed out that the edge data center should be built by using communication room, substation and other places.This plan highlights that the future computing power will show a gradient distribution pattern from the cloud to the edge. The cloud computing power is responsible for complex scientific calculations, large-scale model calculation and reasoning tasks, etc.The edge side relies on the three major advantages of privacy, delay and cost.Become a channel for small models and AI applications to reach thousands of users and scenarios.
In addition, for the traditional businesses of the three major operators: personal mobile business, fixed network and broadband business, the future growth space is limited.
Basically, the personal mobile service penetration rate of operators has reached 71%, showing weak growth.
Mobile: The total number of users is 983 million, with a net increase of 7.752 million in the quarter; among them, the number of 5G package users is 689 million, with a net increase of 75 million in the quarter, and the penetration rate has increased to 70.1%; ARPU is 47.9 yuan, an increase of 0.4 yuan over the same period last year;
Telecom: Revenue was 50.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%; the total number of users was 399 million, with a net increase of 7.52 million in the quarter; among them, the number of 5G package users was 283 million, with a net increase of 15 million in the quarter, and the penetration rate increased to 71.0%; ARPU 45.8 yuan, an increase of 0.8 yuan over the same period last year;
Unicom: Revenue was 43.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; the number of 5G package users was 224 million, with a quarterly net increase of 11 million; ARPU was 44.9 yuan, an increase of 0.9 yuan over the same period last year.
The growth rate of fixed-line and broadband services also reached a bottleneck.
Mobile: The total number of users is 251 million, with a net increase of 7 million this year; access ARPU is 31.4 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 yuan; comprehensive ARPU is 39.2 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 yuan;
Telecom: fixed-line consolidated revenue was 31.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%; the total number of users was 184 million, a net increase of 3.1 million this year; comprehensive ARPU was 47.5 yuan, an increase of 0.8 yuan over the same period last year;
China Unicom: Access revenue was 11.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%.
summary
Jianzhi Research believes that the growth of 5G base station construction progress exceeds the market’s previous expectations, reflecting the strong support for communication construction from top to bottom, and it is also a boost to the demand for the communication industry industry chain.
The future growth of the three major operators will still come from industrial digitization and the development of the data element market.
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