In Piazza Affari it is the revenge of the ‘old economy’: on the eve of the Fed decisions on rates, it is the two ‘evergreen’ sectors of Milan – banking and oil – that are firmly pushing the price list above the threshold of 34,000 points. consolidating yesterday’s great episode. The ceiling was last consistently exceeded by the index on May 16, 2008, before the Lehman Brothers crisis.
The Ftse Mib marks a last position at 34,262 points, up by 0.95%. Tomorrow the word will therefore pass to the Fed: according to IG Italia, Powell and the other central bankers “will try to take as much time as possible to observe the movements of the macroeconomic variables” therefore it is believed that the first change in monetary policy “can only take place in the meeting of Fomc of 30/31 July”.
According to analysts, it is “too risky at the moment to change monetary strategies with inflation well above the 2% target”. In light of inflation proving to be higher than expected in February, yesterday for the first time the chances of a first cut in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, fell below 50%. This evident uncertainty on American rates, which to a certain extent is also reflected on European ones, once again benefits our banks: in Piazza Affari the leader is Bper, which closes with an increase of 2.81%, thanks also to the ratings of S&P assigned on the eve. Followed by good growth: Banco Bpm (2.41%), Banca Mediolanum (+2.24%), Unicredit (+2.11%), Intesa (1.46%) and Banca Popolare di Sondrio (+0.95% ) following his debut on the Ftse Mib.
Oil was also in the spotlight with Eni ending up by 2.39%, and Tenaris by +1.56%. Iveco tops the list (+3.1%). On the opposite front, St (-2.98%) is suffering from the weakness of American technology companies, including Nvidia which has launched a new super chip for Artificial Intelligence. On the currency, euro/dollar falling to 1.086, while the decisions of the Bank of Japan weigh on the yen, which put an end to the negative interest rate policy and raised rates after 17 years: the exchange rate with the dollar stands at 150.81 , while with the single currency at 173.79. The price of oil is rising with Brent expiring in May at 87.4 dollars (+0.6%) and WTI in April at 83.7 (+1.2%). Natural gas traded flat in Amsterdam at 28.8 euros per megawatt hour.
The spread between BTp and Bund closed up at 125 basis points, compared to 122 points at the closing the day before.