(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – After a negative week (the American stock exchanges closed with the largest decline since June and the European ones all ended lower), the lists of the Old Continent are trying to raise their heads. All up, therefore, the FTSE MIB in Milan, the CAC 40 in Paris, the DAX 30 in Frankfurt, the IBEX 35 in Madrid, the Ftse 100 in London and the AEX in Amsterdam. This is after the Asian stock exchanges closed the first session of the week up.
In this context, investors continue to question the future moves of the central banks of the world and above all of the Federal Reserve, the institution that could be the first to launch tapering, that is the reduction of support for the economy. Meanwhile, last week, the European Central Bank partially reassured the markets by announcing a soft review of the Pepp pandemic program. In the background, attention also remains on the progress of the pandemic and its impact on world GDP: Goldman Sachs gave a scissor at the growth forecasts of the American economy, which in 2021 is expected to rise by 6% instead of 6.4%. In addition, inflation data in the United States and the Eurozone are expected in the coming days.
The reasons for concern
Regardless of specific reasons (such as the ruling against Apple, which dropped tech stocks on Friday penalizing Wall Street and Nasdaq), the markets are worried about the three peaks that seem to have been reached. One: the peak in monetary policy, as the Fed is expected to start reducing stimulus soon and the ECB slightly reduced the pace of bond purchases this week. Two: the peak in fiscal policy, given that all the cartridges have now been fired in both the US and Europe, and now the unknowns about the success of the major investment plans remain. Three: the spike in economic growth, as many investment banks (starting with Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley) are starting to revise US growth estimates downwards. Also due to the Delta variant. In short, the fear is that central banks will withdraw or reduce monetary stimuli, just as the economy is starting to show the first signs of fatigue.
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In Milan, eyes on Generali and Mediobanca
In Piazza Affari, attention is paid to Generali, after a surprise over the weekend Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone and Leonardo Del Vecchio announced the establishment of a consultation agreement on Generali, open to third parties, in view of the meeting for the renewal of the board of directors on the agenda with the approval of the 2021 financial statements. The two entrepreneurs have tied up almost 11% of the capital, a share that is close to that of Mediobanca equal to 12.93%. Moreover, both Del Vecchio and Caltagirone are shareholders of Piazzetta Cuccia, with a stake of 18.9% and 3% respectively, which can be raised to 5%. Banks could also be under observation: in fact, the date of October 14 is approaching when the shareholders’ meeting of Intesa Sanpaolo will be called to resolve on the distribution of dividends in addition to the 694 million paid in May. Investors also question the Unicredit negotiations to take over Banca Mps assets.
Retelit runs, Chiara Ferragni gives Safilo wings
Out of the main price list Retelit shot, which reached 3 euros, aligning itself with the new price of the Asterion takeover bid, through Marbles. The terms have in fact been changed: the minimum threshold for the success of the takeover bid drops from 66.67% to 50% plus one share and the consideration for each Retelit share rises from 2.85 to 3 euros.
Furthermore, Chiara Ferragni gives Safilo Group wings: a new multi-year agreement has been signed for the design, production and distribution of the first licensed eyewear collection under the Chiara Ferragni brand. The entire range of sunglasses and prescription eyewear will be presented for Spring Summer 2022 and will be available from January 2022.
Spread slightly down to 102 points
First session of the week in fractional decline due to the spread between BTp and Bund which remains just above the threshold of 100 basis points. The yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp (IT0005436693) and the same German duration is indicated at 102 basis points from 103 at Friday’s close. On the other hand, the yield of the ten-year Btp Banchmark remains at the levels of the close of last week, still standing at 0.71 per cent.