Closing on the rise for the main European stock exchanges, including Piazza Affari. The Ftse Mib ends up 0.7% at 33,632 points, with Banca Popolare di Sondrio at the top (+5.7%) followed by Diarosin (+3.7%) and Bper (+2.8%), while Leonardo (-1.7%) and Prysmian (-1.5%) fall behind.
The climate is also easing on bonds, after the rise in yields observed in recent days in the wake of the prospect of higher rates for longer. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that if there is no progress on inflation, rates will not be cut. On the ECB side, Christine Lagarde declared that in the absence of shocks the cost of money will soon be lowered.
Today the final March data on eurozone inflation confirmed the preliminary reading, with annual growth of 2.5% and a core figure of 2.9%.
As regards Italy, the Bank of Italy’s economic bulletin forecasts a GDP growth of 0.6% in 2024, 1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. The International Monetary Fund instead estimates a further increase of Italian debt from 137.3% in 2023 to 139.2% in 2024 and 140.4% in 2025, while the deficit is expected to fall from 7.2% to 4.6% this year, and then decrease to 3 .2% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.
Data on inflation from the United Kingdom also came from the macro agenda, which slowed less than expected to 3.2% in March. The Fed’s Beige Book is scheduled for tonight.
On bonds, the BTP-Bund spread stood at 143 basis points, with the Italian ten-year bond falling to 3.90% and the Bund at around 2.47%. At the end of the week the S&P agency will decide on Italy’s rating. The 10-year Treasury loses more than 5 bps in yield to 4.61% and the two-year falls to 4.94%.
Among raw materials, Brent oil slips below 89 dollars a barrel after the increase in US inventories (+2.74 million barrels in the last week), to the highest level since June. Gold remains just above $2,380 an ounce. On Forex, the euro/dollar exchange rate remains in the 1.064 area and the dollar/yen stands at 154.7.