MILAN – After the ECB’s unchanged rates, it’s the Federal Reserve’s turn: on Wednesday the FOMC, Washington’s monetary policy arm, will make its decisions which will then be explained by the president’s usual press conference Jerome Powell who will probably use a cautious tone on future moves. For the moment, analysts do not expect any new developments, and the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but the chances attributed by the market to the fact that a cut will be made as early as March are practically split in half. Of course, so far the macro data is supporting the restrictive stance: inflation is falling, while the economy is doing great and consumer spending is supporting it. The report on the labor market, expected on Friday, will also be important.
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Returning to Frankfurt, meanwhile, it made itself felt through La Tribune Sunday the voice of the French governor and member of the Governing Council, Francois Villeroy de Galhau according to whom the ECB could cut interest rates at any time of the year and all options are open in future meetings. “We will cut rates this year,” Villeroy told the French Sunday newspaper. “As for the exact date, nothing is ruled out, and everything will be opened in our next meetings.”
On Thursday, in the meantime, it will be the turn of the Bank of England decide on the cost of money which could show a more cautious attitude on future rate cuts.
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If the central banks remain the guiding star for investors, the week also promises to be full of other events. Of note, in fact, is the GDP of Italy and the Eurozone, but also the price data of the area with the single currency and a series of top-level quarterly publications: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Apple on the American front but also the Ferrari in Italy.
Here is the breaking latest news agenda for the week:
MONDAY 29 JANUARY
– Ex Ilva: Demonstration of Taranto workers called by the unions
– Enea: General States of concentrated solar thermal energy – Baker Hughes: annual meeting (Florence) – Italy-Africa: ‘Italy – Africa’ international summit with, among others, the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti.
– Istat: Non-EU foreign trade December 2023 – Confindustria: Presentation of “Real Time Turnover (RTT), a new indicator for the Italian economy” with Confindustria General Manager Langella.
ECB: speech by De Guindos and speech at the ‘Investment Outlook’ conference
Finlombarda: presentation of the results for 2023 in the activity of granting loans and offering services to Lombardy companies, with president Andrea Mascetti.
TUESDAY 30 JANUARY
– Fmi: update economic outlook
– France: preliminary 4th quarter GDP 2023 – Spain: preliminary 4th quarter GDP
– Germany: 4th quarter GDP
– Italy: Istat preliminary estimate of 4th quarter GDP – Istat: industrial and construction producer prices December 2023
– Eurozone: 4th quarter GDP
– USA: jobs created in December – USA: consumer confidence in January
– Agriculture: promotion campaign for Italian nuts, promoted by the Ministry of Agriculture and carried out by Ismea, in collaboration with the Minister for Sport and Youth and the Italian Rugby Federation. With Francesco Lollobrigida, Minister of Agriculture, Food Sovereignty and Forestry.
– ECB: The chief economist of the ECB, Philip Lane, participates in the conference ‘one year with the euro in Croatia – ANCE: economic observatory on the construction industry, with the director of Economic Affairs, Finance and Study Centre, Flavio Monosilio and the president, Federica Brancaccio – Legacoop: presentation of the V Annual Report AreaStudi Legacoop and Prometeia with the macroeconomic forecasts for the three-year period 2024-2026 with undersecretary Mimit Bitonci and president Legacoop Gamberini
– Bce: European Central Bank’s climate and nature plan 2024-2025.
WEDNESDAY 31 JANUARY
– China: January manufacturing PMI
– Japan: January consumer confidence – Istat: Employed and unemployed December 23; contractual salaries (IV quarter 2023); industry turnover (11-2023)
– Germany: retail sales December 2023 – France: preliminary inflation January – Germany: preliminary inflation January – USA: private sector employed January – Oil: US weekly inventories
– Fed: decision on rates and Powell press conference – Chamber: Question time Minister Giorgetti – Rome: Domina press conference for the presentation of the V annual report on domestic work.
THURSDAY 1 FEBRUARY
– Automotive: table at Mimit
– Ferrari: 4th quarter accounts and 2023 budget with conference call – China: Caixin manufacturing PMI in January – Eurozone: flash inflation in January
– Istat: Consumer price basket (Year 2024); preliminary inflation January
– Cars: January registrations
– Mef: requirement
– GB: BoE rate decision
– USA: unemployment benefits
– USA: January manufacturing PMI
– Manufacturing PMI Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Eurozone January.
– Tax: Il Sole 24 Ore, ‘Telefisco’, news of the budget law, the first measures of the tax reform, with the deputy minister of Economy Leo and the director of the Revenue Agency Ruffini
– EIB: European Investment Bank Group (EIB-EIF), presentation of the results of the EIB Group in Italy in 2023 – ECB: Chief Economist of the ECB Philip Lane speaks at the event organized by the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
FRIDAY 2 FEBRUARY
– Confconstruction: 22nd organizational conference. Opening speech by President Giorgio Spaziani Testa (live streaming – 3.00 pm)
– USA: employed and unemployment rate in January.