At the end of 2021, based on data on mortgage loans signed through the Kìron and Epicas brand agencies, 91.3% of borrowers chose a fixed-rate mortgage. With inflation expected to rise in the coming years, there will be a phenomenon that will see an appreciation of real estate values against a maintenance of the cost of the installment, for which no particular tensions are highlighted.
Those who have not yet signed the loan must deal with an uncertain international situation, which, presumably, will characterize the credit markets in the long term.
In the first three months of 2022 the wave of the pandemic of early January and the first winds of war in Ukraine converge: the barometer of mortgage indexation rates therefore recorded a rise. In any case, it is necessary to consider both the higher costs associated with taking out a loan, and the different paths of recovery of the Euribor rate and the Eurirs rate.
If we consider only the 3-month Euribor parameters (quoted at the beginning of March -0.49%, up 8% from the beginning of 2022) and Eurirs 25 years (on 18 March it was 1.02%, up 79% compared to the beginning of 2022) it would be plausible to think of an increase in interest rates. But, if we go back over time, similar values can be found in March 2018, where the percentages were -0.33% for Euribor 3 months and 1.53% for Eurirs 25 years. Therefore, without prejudice to a similar average spread (estimated at approximately 1.2%) for both the fixed rate and the variable rate, a request for a 25-year loan of 120,000 euros on 160,000 euros of real estate value would lead to very similar situations. , namely: March 2018 – Installment of 557 euros for the fixed rate and 445 for a variable rate – March 2022 – Installment of 507 euros for the fixed rate and 434 for a variable rate. In conclusion, according to the Kìron experts, the interesting opportunities continue even for those who have yet to take out a mortgage, in the face of the expectation of a slight rise in real estate values. Despite the tensions on international markets, mortgages are currently more advantageous than in 2018 (the year in which there was talk of mortgages at historic lows).