Source: CCB Futures Author: CCB Futures
Research report text
1. Market review and operational suggestions
April 6,iron oreThe closing price of the main stone contract is 793.00 yuan/ton, down 10.04% from yesterday, and has fallen for 3 consecutive days. The top 20 short positions are 321,289.00 lots, an increase of 8.63% from yesterday, which has increased for 18 consecutive days. The top 20 long positions are 333,165.00 lots , an increase of 9.38% from yesterday, which has increased for 9 consecutive days.
On April 4, according to analysts, the price of iron ore climbed to a high level due to multiple factors such as market expectations in the first quarter; the global iron ore supply will gradually increase in the later period, coupled with the steady increase in domestic scrap steel supply, the overall market supply and demand tends to Looser and lower prices are more likely, especially in the second half of the year, the price level may drop significantly.
As far as the current fundamentals are concerned, on the supply side, on March 31, Australia’s iron ore shipments were 6.283 million tons, an increase of 1.027 million tons from last week, which has increased for two consecutive weeks. Brazil’s shipments were 6.283 million tons. An increase of 1.027 million tons from last week, which has increased for two consecutive weeks. The arrival volume of iron ore at Port 45 was 22.567 million tons, an increase of 1.33 million tons from last week, and the volume of iron ore dredging was 3.1585 million tons, an increase from last week. 125,100 tons, which has increased for 2 consecutive weeks.
On the demand side, on March 31, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 83.87%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points from last week, and has risen for 12 consecutive weeks. week,RebarThe apparent demand was 3.3321 million tons, an increase of 107,800 tons from last week, and the weekly production of rebar was 3.0219 million tons, an increase of 21,700 tons from last week.
In terms of inventory, on March 31, the inventory at port 45 was 134.6124 million tons, a decrease of 1.4342 million tons from last week, which has been reduced for five consecutive weeks. The inventory of sinter powder imported by steel mills was 10.9058 million tons, an increase of 293,300 tons from last week.
In terms of freight rates, on April 4, the price of iron ore shipped from Brazil to China was US$21.86/ton, an increase of US$0.73/ton from yesterday, which has risen for 4 consecutive days. The price from Newcastle to China was US$13.50/ton, and from Western Australia The price of Dampier shipped to Qingdao Port is 8.71 US dollars / ton, an increase of 0.71 US dollars / ton from yesterday, which has risen for 2 consecutive days.
In March, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and the average daily output of molten iron remained at a high level, making the demand for iron ore relatively strong. In the case of a year-on-year increase in arrivals, inventories continued to decline, and the fundamentals were relatively strong in the short term.
However, we expect that the economic recovery and demand release after the release of epidemic control will be more concentrated in the first half of this year. Judging from the current domestic and foreign macro background, foreign countries, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, and global systemic risks have risen, making iron ore Prices are under upward pressure from a risk asset perspective.
In addition, from the perspective of rebar blast furnace profits, steel mills purchase on demand when profits are low, and iron ore demand is closer to terminal demand. The domestic real estate economic activity data from January to February still declined year-on-year. If demand is released after the three-year epidemic control is released, the real estate economic activity data still cannot be rebounded year-on-year, and the subsequent recovery may not be overly optimistic.
Therefore, in general, April is still a period of terminal-up demand verification. It is expected that the overall demand will fall from a high level, but the level of the same period in 2022 will still increase. If the supply of iron ore maintains year-on-year growth despite the expected drop in demand, port inventories may accumulate again, and iron ore prices on the disk will fall.
3. Industry news
On April 4, the Price Department, Finance Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Futures Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission organized a meeting for some futures companies.
On March 22, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp.
On March 17, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to carry out field research.
On March 15, Credit Suisse suffered a thunderstorm.
On March 14, the Federal Reserve announced the 6% inflation data for February, which was in line with expectations.
On March 12, Signature Bank went bankrupt.
On March 10, Silicon Valley Bank went bankrupt.
On March 3, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to supervise iron ore.
On March 2, the Blackstone Group suffered a thunderstorm.
On February 22, DCE restricted the opening of positions. The opening positions of I2305, 06, 07, 08, and 09 contracts shall not exceed 1,000 lots in a single day, and other contracts shall not exceed 2,000 lots.
On the evening of February 14, the CPI data for January in the United States was released, which was 6.4% year-on-year, 6.2% expected, and 6.5% before.
On February 10, 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the CPI data for January. In January, CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year, expected to rise by 2.3%, and the previous value rose by 1.8%; PPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year, expected to drop by 0.5%, and the previous value fell by 0.7%. The core CPI rose by 1% year-on-year, and the previous value rose by 0.7%.
On February 1, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, and the US federal funds target rate was raised to 4.75%.
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