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In intraday trading on November 18, the main contract of hog futures suffered a sharp drop, with the lowest drop to 21,300 yuan. As of the close, the main live pig contract was quoted at 21,365 yuan, a decrease of 1.36%.
Institutional Core Views
Southwest Futures:The hog futures market began to repair consumption expectations
On the previous trading day, the hog futures 2301 contract fell 0.07% to 21,605 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,775. On the whole, as the peak season for salted cured meat in the south is approaching, the demand has not improved significantly. Affected by the epidemic in many places in the south, consumption continued to slump. The basis of the futures market began to narrow cautiously from the ultra-high level, and the current futures market has begun to restore consumption expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being.
Shanghai mid-term futures:Short-term pig price may continue to fluctuate
At present, the slaughter volume of the group market has increased, while the degree of retail investors’ subscription has decreased; however, there is still no obvious positive boost on the demand side, the centralized pickling has not yet started, and the slaughter volume is running at a low level. In the short term, under the condition of limited demand support It is expected that the price of pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust mainly. For the later period, as the temperature in the south gradually drops recently, the demand for pork may improve. The high temperature in the early stage may delay the peak of pickled sausage this year to the end of November, and the start of consumption of pickled sausage will boost the price of pigs. On the whole, the short-term pig price may continue to fluctuate, and the operation suggests that the range of thinking should be the main idea.
Hongye Futures:Pig prices still face downward pressure under the background of oversupply
At present, the temperature in the south is relatively high, the progress of pickling is limited, and the demand for large pigs is not good. Recently, the price of large pigs has been lowered, and the spread of standard fat prices has narrowed. The extent of the boost, if there is still no significant improvement on the consumer side, the price of pigs will still face downward pressure under the background of oversupply.
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