Companies complain, politicians are looking for solutions. But economists aren’t convinced that the skills shortage is that bad.
The Swiss economy recovered so quickly after the relaxation of the corona measures that the number of job advertisements skyrocketed. At the end of last year there were still more vacancies than unemployed – in normal times it is the other way round.
This is not an easy situation for companies, says Daniel Kopp, labor market economist at ETH Zurich: “Employees, on the other hand, find it easier to find a job and are more likely to negotiate good wages and working conditions.”
That’s the theory. In practice, things look a little different. If the shortage of skilled workers is so pronounced, working conditions in the affected sectors would have to improve significantly and real wages would rise, explains Kopp. “Then it would become more attractive to work in these companies again.”
However, last year real wages fell overall and stagnation is expected this year as well. “From a purely economic point of view, this does not indicate an extremely pronounced deficiency.”
When supply and demand don’t match, the market has to react.
Josef Zweimüller, labor market professor at the University of Zurich, sees it similarly. Employers would have to offer more, then they would find workers: “If supply and demand do not match, the market has to react. In those industries where the problem is acute, you have to think about how you can make these jobs more attractive.”
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The companies would have to adapt, says Zweimüller: “If that’s not possible, you’re forced to limit activities or, in the worst case, to give up.” That is of course tough, but this competition for workers secures our long-term prosperity.
Keystone/DPA/Marijan Murat
In plain language this means: Companies that have trouble finding staff have to make the jobs more attractive, otherwise the people will work elsewhere and the company will disappear. But the fact that wages have not risen in real terms speaks against the fact that this competition is already being conducted with all severity. So the shortage can’t be that big. So much for the thesis of the economists.
And how is the situation on the labor market likely to develop in the near and distant future? Kopp assumes that companies will react: in sectors where the pressure is particularly high, employers indicated in a survey that working conditions would be improved. How much work is wanted also depends on economic developments.
According to Kopp, there are also long-term developments. «The demographic development leads to a shortage of labor supply. The baby boomers are retiring and will not be completely replaced by younger cohorts. However, this is being countered by immigration and a possible further increase in the employment rate of women.”
There is also the question of how long we will be working in the future. How many companies are active in Switzerland and who works how much in Switzerland are ultimately also political questions. Zweimüller also points out: “In parallel with the shortage of skilled workers, we are discussing whether we will run out of work due to automation and technological change.” And wherever people can be replaced, they are rationalized away.
In the long term, the picture is more than unclear. One thing is clear: in 2022, more people will be working in Switzerland than ever before. On average, they were better qualified and put in more hours together than ever before.
However, it is also clear that many employers are still desperately looking for suitable staff. The fact that wages have not increased suggests that employers’ complaints about the shortage of skilled workers are bigger than the actual problem.