Skyrocketing variable mortgages: additional outlay of 2,300 euros in 18 months
Because of rate hike due to the ECB’s monetary policy, whoever signed up for a average variable rate mortgage in January 2022 – according to simulations by Facile.it e Mutui.it – suffered a additional total outlay of over 2,300 euros in just a year and a half. Considering market expectations and how the Euribor, the reference index for variable mortgages, could vary within a year, it is estimated that spending could exceed 5,300 euros in July 2024.
The simulations
For the analysis, the buyer referred to a variable-rate loan of 126,000 euros with a 25-year repayment plan signed in January 2022 and studied how the installments have increased from the beginning of 2022 to today and how they could vary again in the coming months based on Euribor Futures, i.e. market expectations.
Il tasso (TAN) starting from January 2022 was equal to 0.67%, corresponding to a monthly installment of 456 euros. Following the various increases in the cost of money implemented by the European Central Bank to counter inflation, the rate of that mortgage rose considerably, reaching 4.95% in August 2023 with an installment of around 726 euros ; data in hand, today the borrower finds himself paying as much as 60% more than at the beginning of 2022 (+270 euros).
Facile.it then calculated how much the increases in installments affected those who took out the loan under analysis; adding up the additional amounts paid each month with respect to the starting installment, it emerged that – from January 2022 to August 2023 – the total outlay for the borrower was over 2,300 euros. As mentioned, if market forecasts are taken into consideration, therefore Euribor futures, the overall burden in July 2024 could even be higher than 5,300 euros.
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