Source: Industrial Securities Futures Author: Industrial Securities Futures
Research report text
【Summary】
Domestic futuresthe closing price of the second soybean contract changed by 2.6% to 5,137 yuan/ton, and the closing price of soybean oil changed by 4.39% to 8,794 yuan/ton.soybean mealThe closing price changed by 1.06% to 3893 yuan / ton. Soy prices rebounded somewhat.
Spotwest of the United StatessoybeanThe CNF price is US$662.98/ton, the CNF price of Brazilian beans is US$653.75/ton, and the CNF price of Argentine beans is US$611/ton.
soybean, Port inventory continued to rise, domestic supply gradually eased, and the weather in South America was still the focus of the market. The sowing progress in the core planting area of Argentina is lagging behind, and the first abundant precipitation of this season will be ushered in in the future, which will alleviate the production concerns in Argentina to a certain extent, but Argentina is still facing drought problems. At present, the second soybean contract follows the trend of US soybeans, but the overall market is weaker than that of the external market. The negative crushing profit has an impact on the actual purchase of soybeans. Combined with the weakening of downstream demand, soybeans remained volatile and bearish before the year.
Affected by weak demand, soybean crushing profits turned negative. At present, the price of soybean oil has rebounded, and the downstream demand has improved. However, it is difficult to see a significant improvement during the peak period of the epidemic, and the recovery of downstream demand is cautiously viewed. You can pay attention to the recovery of offline consumption after the first quarter of next year.
soybean meal, The cost supports the price of soybean meal, and the decline in breeding profits affects the overall feed demand. The profit of hog breeding has turned negative, and the market price of pork has also shown a downward trend, and the slaughter has accelerated. However, as the weather turns cold, the demand for hog pickling and two festivals will boost the price of hogs to a certain extent. The slaughter of the breeding industry at the end of the year will boost the demand for soybean meal. The cost of soybeans and the stock of breeding industry provide the underlying support for soybean meal, and the overall trend remains volatile.
soybeans:Bearish operation in the next quarter;
soybean meal: To maintain a volatile trend in the next quarter;
soybean oil: Maintain a volatile trend.
【Risk factors】
South American weather; epidemic situation; festival demand exceeds expectations.
【1. Market and Spot Price Review】
[2. Fundamental situation]
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