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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – European stock markets without direction with the indices fluctuating around parity right from the start. On a day in which macro data do not orient the market (the German Zew index went from -12.3 to -11.4 points, in Spain inflation was confirmed at +0.5% and in the United Kingdom unemployment has risen to 4.3%), attention is already turned to the meetings of the ECB on Thursday and the Federal Reserve next week. The Eurotower, so far devoted to an aggressive strategy, could opt for a temporary stop to the tightening (Integrae Sim analysts see a 60% possibility of a pause, those of Pgim Fixed Income believe that «the forward-looking indicators suggest that a pause It might be prudent at this time.” The market, however, considers it extremely probable (90%) that the Federal Reserve will keep things still, postponing any new moves to the next meetings. Meanwhile, Milan (FTSE MIB) is flat, while London (FT-SE 100) and Madrid (IBEX 35) rise. Further back are Paris (CAC 40), Frankfurt (DAX 40) and Amsterdam (AEX).
Futures fall on Wall Street as inflation awaits
US futures are falling as investors await Apple’s key presentation and brace for a barrage of inflation data. Also weighing are the rise in oil prices and the sharp decline in Oracle, which weighs on many tech stocks. The main indices closed higher on the eve, helped by gains in Big Tech stocks, with electric car maker Tesla rising by more than 10%. The S&P 500 closed 0.7% higher, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.1%. The Dow rose 0.3% for its third straight day of gains. Apple, the world‘s most valuable company, is preparing to unveil its new iPhones during its highly anticipated annual product update event. Apple shares have fared poorly of late on the back of disappointing quarterly earnings and fears that China’s restrictions on the use of iPhones in government offices could undermine prospects in its largest international market. Since its record high in late July, Apple has lost nearly $300 billion in market value. Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, the market’s focus now turns to key inflation data due on Wednesday and Thursday. The consumer price index and producer price index are both expected to rise in August, thanks to rising energy prices, while retail sales are seen falling as consumers grapple with the fallout of the increase in rates. The Fed has pushed interest rates from near zero early last year to the highest level since 2007 in an effort to contain inflation. About 93% of traders expect the Fed to keep rates on hold next week, even as expectations for a rate hike in November have risen to above 40%.
Germany: September Zew index improves to -11.4 from -12.3
Germany’s economic outlook unexpectedly improved in September on expectations for a pause on interest rates, just days before the next ECB meeting. The Zew index for the next six months rose to -11.4 in September from -12.3 in August, above economists’ expectations. “The brighter economic outlook for Germany aligns with a significantly more optimistic view of international stock market developments,” said Zew President Achim Wambach. In contrast, the Zew index to measure the current economic situation fell further in September to -79.4 from -71.3 in August, the lowest value since August 2020.
Spain: Ine confirms inflation +0.5% in August
In August, consumer prices in Spain rose 0.5% from the previous month and rose 2.6% year-on-year, after rising at a 2.3% annual pace in July, data showed of the INE statistical institute. The data is in line with preliminary estimates released on August 30. The harmonized index of consumer prices, used in the European Union, increased by 0.5% on a monthly basis and by 2.4% on an annual basis, compared to the 2.1% annual increase observed in July and in line even with preliminary data.
UK: unemployment rate rises again to 4.3% in the 3 months
The May-July unemployment rate in the UK increased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.3%. According to the Office for National Statistics, the rise in unemployment largely comes from people being out of work for up to 12 months. The inactivity rate increased 0.1 percentage point in the quarter, to 21.1 percent. The increase in inactivity during the latest quarter was driven by people aged 16 to 24. Those inactive due to long-term illnesses increased to a record high. Meanwhile, those who are inactive because they take care of family or home have fallen to an all-time low.