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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – The main European stock markets move with prudence on the day of the Federal Reserve, while December 14th will be the turn of the meetings of the ECB and that of the Bank of England. In the next few hours, the two-day meeting of the FOMC, the monetary policy committee of the American Central Bank, will end, from which indications will come on the next monetary policy moves and a revision of the outlook on the Stars and Stripes economy in 2024. The market shows no doubts about the fact that the American Central Bank will leave rates unchanged, but the eyes of observers will be focused above all on the subsequent press conference of President Jerome Powell to understand the timing of a possible cut in the cost of money in light of US inflation slightly above expectations on the eve.
The European stock markets therefore rose slightly, with the FTSE MIB in Milan slightly faster than the CAC 40 in Paris and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt. London’s FT-SE 100 and Madrid’s IBEX 35 are weak. Wall Street opens with little movement, also focusing on inflation, after consumer prices showed a slightly higher than expected decline the day before. Meanwhile, November producer prices remained unchanged, a figure below estimates, while the annual figure fell to 0.9%.
Fed: firm rates expected, then cuts in 2024
The market estimates that American interest rates remain stable in the range between 5.25% and 5.5%, but useful indications are expected from President Jerome Powell’s press conference to understand when the first cut in the cost of money will occur . Then, futures contracts price at least four 25 basis point cuts in 2024, most likely starting in May, but Powell could add water to the fire of enthusiasm for more expansive financial conditions if he deems it excessive. US inflation in November it rose by 0.1% in the face of expectations for unchanged consumer prices and the increase, however small, could give support to the members of the Fed’s monetary committee who are less inclined to ease monetary policy too soon.
Well Prysmian, achievements on Banco Bpm
Telecom Italia is suffering on the Ftse Mib after press rumors that the French partners of Vivendi are ready for a legal battle against the sale of the network to KKR. Achievements on Banco Bpm in the aftermath of the new industrial plan, promoted by analysts on the shareholder remuneration front. Ferrari weak with HSBC cutting its rating to “hold”. On the opposite front, Erg and Amplifon stand out at their highest levels for almost three months after taking over the Audical group in Uruguay. Eems is out of the main list and will hold the stock split meeting in January (1 to 250).
Spread remains below 180 points, ten-year yield falling
Declining trend for the spread between BTp and Bund on a day conditioned by expectations for the outcome of the Fed meeting. The yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp (Isin IT0005560948) and the German equivalent maturity is indicated at 175 basis points, in fractional decline compared to the 178 points of the previous closing. The decline in the yield of the benchmark ten-year BTp was more clear, reaching 3.98%, from 4.01% at the closing the day before.