Our stock exchange experts take a look at the new week. There are positive signals for investors given the preliminary agreement in the US debt dispute.
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The provisional scored at the weekend Compromise in the US debt dispute could bring some relaxation on the stock exchanges this week, the impending insolvency of the world‘s largest economy has been averted for the time being. The uncertainty persists, however, last week the German share index slipped back below the 16,000 point mark.
Some disillusionment has also set in in Germany, with the revised figures from the Federal Statistical Office on gross domestic product it is now official: Germany is going through a technical recession, because the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 were negative. More important, however, is looking ahead and asking how strong the economic recovery will be.
Corporate profits better than expected
Corporate profits are at least developing better than expected. This was shown by the most recent reporting season in both the USA and Germany. From a fundamental point of view, Helaba believes that this opens up further price scope. Despite the strong increase since autumn 2022, the Dax is still slightly undervalued by 36 percent at times. The opportunities outweigh the negative ones, but much smaller increases can be expected.
Arguments for a weaker Dax
According to the LBBW according to the leading indicators, the prospects are gloomy. Weaker stock market months are likely to follow. “The nervousness is increasing,” says analyst Frank Klumpp. Commerzbank also gives arguments for a weaker Dax, for example that the Ifo index is likely to fall again, the Dax dividend season endsthe Dax profit margins should shrink with falling inflation and Dax corporate profits will probably fall from mid-2023.
Important publications this week include the inflation rate for May from the Federal Statistical Office and consumer prices in Euroland. Also of interest are the purchasing manager surveys in the euro zone and in China. They provide information on whether the economic environment has stabilized or clouded over.