A man braves the constant rain in Croatia near Zagreb. Mudslides also reached coastal regions popular with tourists in the holiday country. picture alliance / PIXSELL | Before Puklavec
Heat waves in Italy and Spain, severe fires in Greece, storms in Croatia: Popular holiday regions on the Mediterranean are experiencing a summer of extremes.
The horror reports from the south trigger a lot of sympathy in Germany. But they also let tourists look to the future with concern: Do they now have to worry about their vacation every year?
Business Insider asked experts how they see the future of tourism in one of the world‘s most visited regions.
Heat waves in Spain and Italy, severe fires in the Aegean Sea, mudslides in Croatia: Popular holiday regions on the Mediterranean are experiencing a summer of extremes this year. The horror pictures from the south have not stopped for weeks. In Germany they trigger a lot of sympathy. At the same time, tourists in this country are wondering whether they will have to worry about their summer vacation every year in the future.
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The extreme events in the holiday season are fueling a debate that has not only been going on in Germany since this summer. Because Spain, Italy and Greece are among the favorite countries of Germans, along with Turkey. It is about the question of what the future of tourism in the Mediterranean could look like – one of the most visited regions in the world.
Some are now talking about the weather, others about climate change. What do industry experts say about a region that climate researchers say is warming faster than others?
Holiday in Greece? In the future “with the risk of ending up in the heat at 45 degrees”
“It’s weather and not climate, but the climate ultimately determines the weather,” says Harald Zeiss about the high temperatures. In the past, Zeiss dealt with environmental issues at TUI, today he researches sustainable tourism as a professor at the Harz University of Applied Sciences.
He says: “The Mediterranean region is coming under massive pressure – but you can already hear and see that in the 1979 ‘Tagesschau’.” At that time, the first world climate conference was taking place in Geneva Mediterranean belt”.
Although tourism is also a cause of climate change, it is “primarily the one who suffers,” says Zeiss. The industry can only react. The expert is convinced that people will continue to travel to Greece in the future. “But increasingly with the risk of ending up in the heat at 45 degrees.”
2008 kamen Deutsche Bank analysts concludes that higher temperatures and water shortages during the peak tourist season could “deter” tourists from the Mediterranean. On the other hand, the Benelux countries, Denmark, Germany and the Baltic States could win.
“People want sun, sand and sea”
However, says Aage Dünhaupt, a spokesman for the TUI travel group: “People want sun, beach and sea – I can’t guarantee that much more on the North Sea or Baltic Sea.” Not only that: “Of course I get X less in Germany for an amount like boarding a plane bound for Spain or Greece.”
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Markus Tressel is President of the Travel Industry Club. Before that, Tressel sat for the Greens in the Bundestag, for a long time as a tourism expert for his group. “People want a change of scenery and the south continues to be a place of longing for many, and it will stay that way,” says Tressel. “As a result, people will not initially consider whether they are going south – but rather when.”
Tourism expert expects “seasonal shifts”
Tressel believes that “seasonal shifts” are possible, which means that people would be more likely to travel south at Easter, Pentecost or in autumn when the temperatures are more pleasant. “But they might spend their summer vacation in the mountains,” says Tressel. “Winter business is increasingly being lost in the mountains because the winters are too warm. That’s why they’re thinking about how to generate summer business there.”
The whole industry is looking for the answer to the question of how people will travel in the future, says Tressel. “In times of multiple crises, there is still a lot to be done.”
Greece tries to ‘spread the season’
In Greece, tourism accounts for more than a fifth of gross domestic product, recent data show. That’s why the local authorities have been trying to find alternatives to “classic beach and sun tourism”, as Tressel calls it, not just since yesterday. He says: “The Greeks have been trying for 20 years to spread the season, to get more people into the country outside of the summer.” The season could be extended until mid-November, believes Aage Dünhaupt from TUI.
Samed Kizgin deals with the travel safety of tourists at the company A3M Global Monitoring, his employer offers, among other things, early warning systems for possible restrictions. When it comes to heat warnings in holiday regions, the safety analyst has observed “no significant increase” in the past three years. “But the authorities have become more cautious — that’s the big change,” says Kizgin.
“Overall, it’s getting warmer, hotter, drier”
From the point of view of the scientist Zeiss, it is such findings that make it difficult to convey the effects of climate change. “We are currently in a process of change that is constantly moving in one direction,” says Zeiss. “Of course it has all happened before, but this is about a level that is rising. In frequency and overall, it is getting warmer, hotter, drier, and the number of storms and severe weather events is increasing.”
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It is also unclear for experts like Zeiss how knowledge about climate change will affect travel behavior. In 2023, for example, a study based on the renowned Reiseanalyse showed that 68 percent of Germans have a positive attitude towards sustainable holidays. But only a fraction base their travel plans on this. “The vast majority of people travel primarily to treat themselves to something good and not to do something for the environment, climate or social justice,” the study’s authors judged.
“On the one hand, there is a high desire to behave differently, but when it comes to swearing, other factors such as the price of the trip or availability count,” Zeiss observed. “But the proportion of those who want to change something is increasing. More and more people will ask themselves whether they are helping the climate with their travel behavior or not,” he is certain.
This article was published on July 25, 2023. It was revised and updated on August 8.
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