Watch a week of auto stocks, and observe the auto market.
On July 8, the broader market opened higher and moved lower throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13%.
On the disk, technology themes such as semiconductors, chips, and consumer electronics rose sharply, the Metaverse concept stocks rose and strengthened, and the biomedicine and large infrastructure sectors were active. However, the two major tracks of automobiles and new energy have obviously pulled back. As of press time, Foton Motor and Jiangling Motors had daily limit, SAIC Motor Group rose more than 5%, and Changan Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile, and Beiqi Blue Valley fell more than 4%.
In general, thanks to the joint efforts of 17 departments such as the Ministry of Commerce to promote consumption, auto stocks will welcome another carnival this week.
On the news, on the 7th, the Ministry of Commerce and other 17 departments issued the “Notice on Several Measures to Revitalize Automobile Circulation and Expand Automobile Consumption” (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”), the “Notice” pointed out that supportnew energy vehiclesConsumption, study the issue of extension after the expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy, and at the same time, actively supportChargefacility construction. Carry out in-depth activities of new energy vehicles going to the countryside, and encourage places where conditions permit to issue support policies for going to the countryside.
It is worth mentioning that the “Notice” gives a “green light” to support the purchase and use of new energy vehicles.
Including promoting cross-regional free circulation, breaking the local protection of the new energy vehicle market, each region shall not set a local new energy vehicle model record catalog, and shall not set unreasonable vehicle parameter indicators for the sales and consumption subsidies of new energy vehicle products.
Support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and study the issue of extension after the expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy. Carry out in-depth activities of new energy vehicles going to the countryside, encourage qualified places to issue support policies for going to the countryside, guide enterprises to increase incentives for activities, and promote the consumption and use of new energy vehicles in rural areas.
Actively support the construction of charging facilities, accelerate the construction of charging facilities in residential communities, parking lots, gas stations, expressway service areas, passenger and freight hubs, etc., and guide charging pile operators to appropriately reduce charging service fees.
Regarding the second-hand car circulation, which is more concerned by the majority of netizens, the “Notice” proposes to cancel the unreasonable restrictions on the development of second-hand car distribution, and clarify that enterprises whose registered domicile and business premises are outside the second-hand car trading market can carry out the second-hand car sales business.
The notice stipulates that all regions will strictly implement the policy of comprehensively canceling the relocation restrictions on used cars. From August 1, 2022, nationwide (including the key areas for air pollution prevention and control specified by the state) will be canceled for small non-operating used cars that meet the National V emission standards. The immigration restrictions will promote the free circulation of used cars and the cross-regional operation of enterprises.
The “Notice” also mentioned that all localities are encouraged to comprehensively use economic, technological and other means to promote the withdrawal of old vehicles, and regions with conditions can carry out car trade-ins to speed up the elimination and replacement of old vehicles.
Under the continuous support of continuous policies, the improvement of the fundamentals of the industrial chain is also expected to promote the continued development of the automotive sector. According to data released by the Ministry of Public Security on July 6, as of the end of June 2022, the number of motor vehicles in the country has reached 406 million, of which the number of new energy vehicles has exceeded 10 million.
In addition to policy efforts,BYDandNingde eraThe market performance in the recent period is worth mentioning.
In the first half of this year, BYD surpassed Tesla with more than 640,000 vehicles, and won the global new energy vehicle sales in the first half of 2022.
On July 3, BYD released the June production and sales express data showing that from January to June 2022, BYD’s new energy vehicles accumulated a total ofsalesAbout 641,400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 314.9%. On the same day, Tesla released its production delivery report for the second quarter of 2022. According to the report, Tesla delivered a total of 564,000 electric vehicles worldwide in the first half of this year.
Judging from the above data, BYD leads Tesla with a sales advantage of nearly 80,000 units.
According to “Reference News” citing the British “Financial Times” website reported on the 5th, BYD replaced Tesla to become the world‘s largest electric vehicle salesCar manufacturerbusiness and show that China’s dominance in the industry is on the rise.
In addition, although Tesla’s market value is still much higher than that of BYD, its share price performance this year has been underperformed by BYD. BYD’s Hong Kong shares have risen more than 18 percent this year, compared with a cumulative decline of about 34 percent for Tesla.
The institutions also have different judgments on the future prospects of the two.According to the HSBC research report, due to the continuous increase in the order volume of BYD’s new models Seal and D9 and the launch of more products, it is expected thatelectric carThe strong sales momentum will continue in the second half of 2022. A boost in monthly sales on the back of recovering demand and increased visibility on the introduction of mid- to long-term EV policies will further drive the share price.
Meanwhile, external battery orders are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2022 as BYD becomes Tesla’s battery supplier.
HSBC raised the target price of BYD’s H/A shares from HK$407/RMB 348 to HK$442/RMB 378, maintaining a “buy” rating. In contrast, JPMorgan recently cut Tesla’s from $395 to $385, which means that Tesla is still down about 40%.
JPMorgan analysts believe that Tesla faces risks in terms of demand, execution and external competition, but the bigger risk comes from the company’s strategy to expand into lower-priced but more-demanding markets.
Let’s take a look at the Ningde era. On July 4, the South Korean market research agency SNEResearch released data. From January to May, the globalPower BatteryThe total installed capacity was 157.4GWh, an increase of 77.3% year-on-year, and it has been growing for 23 consecutive months; among them, CATL reached 53.3GWh, an increase of 112% year-on-year, and its market share reached 33.9%; LG New Energy and BYD followed closely, and in the top ten list, Chinese power battery companies accounted for 6 seats.
Previously, CATL released the Kirin battery, which has attracted much attention from the market. The volume utilization rate of the Kirin battery exceeded 72%, the energy density can reach 255Wh/kg, and the vehicle can reach 1,000 kilometers.battery life, the fastest charging and discharging rate can reach 4C. This battery will be mass-produced in 2023 and is expected to become the latest flagship product of the CATL.
However, as a battery manufacturer, CATL faces a relatively large market competition challenge.
On the one hand, OEMs are reluctant to put all their eggs in one basket, and finding a second supplier for their own batteries outside the Ningde era has become an important strategy for the company. On the other hand, battery companies including BYD and China Innovation Airlines have launched products with strong competitiveness, and the leading edge of the CATL era has been continuously diluted.
In this case, CATL must find a new profit point for itself outside the battery business. Only in this way can the sustainable development of the business be ensured.
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Original title: One-week stock review | Supporting auto consumption, auto stocks keep rising