Source: Dayue Futures Author: Dayue Futures
Research report text
【Daily view】
1、Fundamentals：GlassNegative profits in production continue to deteriorate, cold repairs in the industry increase, operating rates drop significantly, but effective production capacity shrinks less than expected; favorable macro and real estate policies boost sentiment, but the traditional off-season is approaching, terminal real estate demand is still weak, and glass inventory is still at an absolute high level; biased null.
2、Basis: The spot price of the float glass Hebei Shahe Security Industry large plate is 1492 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2305 is 1656 yuan/ton, the basis is -164 yuan, and the futures premium spot; bearish.
3、in stock: The inventory of float glass enterprises across the country was 67.245 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week, still significantly above the 5-year average; bearish.
4、disk: The price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is up; more.
5、main position: The main position is clear, and the short is reduced; short.
6、expected: Glass demand is expected to recover, but the fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly. In the short term, it is expected to maintain shock operation. FG2305: 1600-1660 interval operation within the day.
【Recent bullish and bearish analysis】
profitable:
1. With the loosening of domestic epidemic control policies and the introduction of recent real estate stimulus policies, glass demand is expected to recover in the medium to long term or gradually. 2. The negative profit status of glass production has lasted for more than half a year, the number of cold repairs in the industry has gradually increased, and the supply is expected to continue to decline in the medium and long term. Bad news:
1. In November, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area, sales amount, newly started area, and completed area weakened collectively. The real estate data is still weak and hard to change. The demand for glass is expected to be bleak this year.
2. The recovery of demand for terminal real estate is not as good as expected. The off-season of traditional demand is approaching. Most of the downstream processing factories maintain a small replenishment rhythm.
[Current main logic and risk points]
1、main logic: At present, glass is boosted by the optimization of macro real estate and epidemic prevention policies, but the reality of high inventory and weak demand has not been effectively improved. The short-term fundamentals are weak and hard to change. It is expected that glass will have a risk of falling back. In the medium and long term, we need to pay attention to the recovery of the real estate side.
2、risk point: The implementation of the real estate policy exceeded expectations, and the centralized cold repair of glass production lines increased.
[1. Glass futures market]
【Main basis】
【2. Glass spot market】
【3. Cost side】
glass production profit
glass production profit
【Fourth, analysis of glass fundamentals】
(1) Supply
(2) Demand
(3) Inventory
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