Textile and Apparel Bi-Weekly Report (2209 Issue): Optimistic about the fundamental rebound opportunity to seize the long-term buying point under short-term fluctuations

core point

Market Review: In the past two weeks, A sharesTextile and ApparelThe top five companies in the sector growth list are Duoxii,Mu Gao Di、Sanfu Outdoor、Sanfangxiang, ST Modern.In the past two weeks, Hong Kong stocksTextile and ApparelThe top five companies in the sector growth list are:Esprit Global、Mulsanne Group Holdings、timepiece treasure、Citychamp Watch & Jewellery、Crystal International. Looking at the PE (next 12 months) range of related companies in the past 2 years, after previous adjustments, the price-earnings ratios of most A-share and Hong Kong-related companies are still at the bottom of historical valuations, and some companies have recently experienced valuations. Signs of value repair.

Data tracking: 1) In terms of retail, in March 2022, social zero was -0.4% year-on-year, clothing retail was -12.7% year-on-year, and online retailing of clothing was +0.9% year-on-year; Tmall andJD.comIn March, online retail sales of women’s clothing, men’s clothing, children’s clothing, sportswear, and sports shoes were -26%, -23%, -14%, -11%, and -10% year-on-year; in April 2022, Tmall flagship store of key brands, before growth The five brands are Kelon, Nike, Shengdao, keep,Bienlephine, an increase of 175%, 120%, 79%, 60% year-on-year. 2) In terms of manufacturing exports, Vietnam continued to maintain a highly prosperous situation. In April, it increased by 22% under a high base. The domestic market was affected by the epidemic blockade. In April, textile and clothing exports increased by 1% and 2% year-on-year, respectively. In the past two weeks, Shengze Looms The operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month. 3) In terms of cost, cotton prices at home and abroad have declined recently, and the price of nylon 66 chips has dropped to a relatively normal level from the beginning of the year. It is expected that the cost of manufacturing enterprises will be gradually controlled.

Industry news: Kappa formed a partnership with the U.S. ski team; 55% of the new stores of global luxury brands last year were in China; Allbirds’ first-quarter revenue increased by 26%; Uniqlo Japan’s April sales increased by 19%; adidas China in the first quarter Sales fell 35%.

Investment suggestion: In the short term, domestic retail sales and exports are under certain pressure due to the impact of the epidemic. The valuation of some companies has fallen to the bottom of the nearly two-year range since mid-March. With the recent improvement of the epidemic, policies to stabilize growth will be introduced. , the depreciation of the RMB and the controlled price of major raw materials and other favorable factors have been released, and the valuation of the sector has shown a slight recovery trend. In the medium and long term, the brand side continues to be optimistic about the potential improvement of high-quality local sports brands and the growth prospects of the industry, and the manufacturing side continues to be optimistic about the leading companies with the advantage of increasing share.We are optimistic about the opportunity for fundamentals and valuations to rebound in the context of historically low levels, and Hong Kong stocks are highly recommendedLi Ning、Anta Sports、Shenzhou International、Xtep International、Bosideng、TopsportsA-share key recommendationHuali Group、Taihua New Materials、Weixing shares、Bienlephine、Shengtai Group。

Risk warnings: 1. Repeated epidemics; 2. Deterioration of competition; 3. Damaged brand image; 4. Significant fluctuations in raw material prices; 5. Systemic risks.

(Article Source:Guosen Securities）

Article source: Guosen Securities

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Original title: Textile and Apparel Bi-Weekly Report (2209 Issue): Optimistic about the fundamental rebound opportunity and seize the long-term buying point under short-term fluctuations