One wonders whether, in deciding the aggression against Ukraine, Putin had taken into account, beyond the tragic military and humanitarian consequences, the possible global repercussions of his action. For example if he had imagined that two neutral countries like Finland and Sweden would have asked to join the Atlantic Alliance. Finland is now admitted, Sweden will probably also be admitted and that the balance of forces in Europe will change decidedly against Russia.
Certainly the Russian president could not foresee that he himself would become the object of a arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, which will force him to limit his travel abroad. He is already humiliating for Russia that South Africahost country of the next BRICS summit, considered withdrawing its membership of the Court to allow your representative to attend the event.
It is known that the violation of the prohibition of the “threat or use of force against the territorial integrity of States” enshrined in the UN Charter, it is one of the few circumstances in which the expulsion of a state from the United Nations Organization is foreseen. No one has so far invoked this clause in the current crisis, but it cannot be ruled out that this could happen.
The question of nuclear defense
One of the lessons drawn from the Russian intervention is the sad and growing reality that states without a nuclear weapon or a “nuclear umbrella” they cannot by themselves safeguard their territorial integrity and political independence and that not even the international bodies in charge of this can protect them. This is particularly the case when, as in the case of Ukraine, the violation is by one of the five permanent members of the Security Council: in this case the latter find themselves in the absurd situation of being both defendants and judges of themselves, with the added right of veto. The very principle of the hegemony of these five states within the UN could be called into question.
Even more worrying is the danger that, following the Ukraine case, other countries follow the example of North Korea which withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2002 then equipping itself with nuclear weapons. This would be the case, sixty years after her murder, the “nuclear nightmare” feared by President Kennedy: that of a world in which dozens of countries would possess atomic weapons. The higher the number of such countries, the greater the risk that this weapon will be used.
This series of shocking consequences appears to be contrary to everyone’s interestsprimarily to the interests of Russia itself.
Foto di copertina EPA/GAVRIIL GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL