Chinese peopleBankChina for the second quarter of 2021 released on August 9currencyThe policy implementation report proposes to insist on the implementation of normal monetary policy and do a good job in cross-cycle policy design. Adhere to the central bank and the fiscal “pocket bag” positioning, and fundamentally maintain the overall stability of the price level. Continue to strengthen the construction of the basic system of the capital market, better protect the interests of investors, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market.
Do a good job in cross-cycle policy design
The report pointed out that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, and stable, adhere to the implementation of normal monetary policy, do a good job in cross-cyclical policy design, enhance the autonomy of macro policies, and grasp the intensity and strength of policies in accordance with the domestic economic situation and price trends. The relationship between economic development and risk prevention should be handled properly, maintaining the overall stability of the overall economic situation, and enhancing the resilience of economic development.
The report emphasizes that the structural monetary policy tools should be used as a leading role, and the two extensions of monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy should be implemented.CreditRe-lending policies in slow-growing provinces have promoted the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools in an orderly manner, stepped up efforts to support inclusive finance, and guided financial institutions to increase support for technological innovation, small and micro enterprises, green development, and manufacturing.
Analysts believe that monetary policy will maintain continuity, stability and sustainability. In terms of total volume, we will adhere to a stable keynote, and will not engage in “overwhelming flood irrigation”, so as to better ensure that the economy is operating within a reasonable range. At the same time, more structural tools are used to increase support for key areas such as science and technology innovation.
Minsheng BankLead researcher Wen Bin said that the foundation of domestic economic recovery is not yet solid, and macro-control needs to be further improved. Monetary policy should create a good monetary environment for high-quality economic development. On the one hand, it should maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and on the other hand, it should emphasize precision. “The carbon emission reduction support tool that the market pays attention to is expected to be launched soon, encouraging financial institutions to further increase their support for green development.”
When it comes to the relationship between currency and inflation, the report believes that the relationship between currency and inflation has not changed. A large amount of currency will inevitably lead to inflation. The key to stabilizing inflation is to control the currency.At present, my country’s inflationary pressure is generally controllable, which is largely due to my country’scurrency supplySince May last year, the growth rate has been leading other large economies and has gradually returned to normal. At the end of June this year, my country’s M2 growth rate was 8.6%, which was basically the same as before the epidemic and basically matched the nominal economic growth rate, stabilizing prices from a macro perspective.
The report emphasizes that in the next step, the monetary policy must adhere to the principle of stability, the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, maintain the growth rate of the money supply and the scale of social financing to basically match the nominal economic growth rate, and adhere to the two “money” The positioning of the “bag” fundamentally maintains the overall stability of the price level.
Continue to unleash the potential of LPR reform
According to the report, since 2021, the peopleBankContinue to release loan market quotesinterest rate(LPR) Reform potential to guide actual lendinginterest rateStability and decline, to promote the financial system to transfer profits to the real economy.At the same time, optimize the deposit interest rate supervision, adjust the method of determining the deposit interest rate self-discipline upper limit, and promote the reductionBankCost of debt.
Data show that in June, the weighted average interest rate of loans was 4.93%, a record low since statistics. Among them, the weighted average interest rate of general loans was 5.20%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.06 percentage points, a record low since statistics. The weighted average interest rate of corporate loans was 4.58%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.06 percentage points, which was at a historically low level. The effect of financial support on the real economy continued to show.
From the perspective of deposit interest rates, the report points out that all financial institutions have implemented the relevant requirements of the interest rate self-regulation mechanism, and the implementation of the new deposit interest rate self-regulation ceiling is in good condition, and the implementation is stable and orderly. From the perspective of listed interest rates, the national bank deposits listed interest rates have remained basically unchanged, and the listed interest rates of medium and long-term deposits of some corporate financial institutions have been lowered, which are in line with the new deposit interest rate self-regulatory ceiling requirements. In actual implementation, each bank can independently negotiate with depositors to determine the specific deposit interest rate level within the upper limit of self-discipline.
The report emphasizes that in the next step, the People’s Bank of China will improve the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, improve the central bank’s policy interest rate system, continue to release the potential of LPR reform, unblock the loan interest rate transmission channel, optimize the structure of financial resource allocation, and consolidate the results of the previous loan interest rate decline. At the same time, optimizing the supervision of deposit interest rates, maintaining the basic stability of banks’ debt-side costs, and urging banks to transfer policy dividends to the real economy, promoting further reductions in actual loan interest rates, and ensuring that the comprehensive financing costs of small and micro enterprises are steadily and slightly reduced.
The current LPR quotation has remained unchanged for 15 consecutive months.Chief Macro of Oriental JinchengAnalystWang Qing believes that if the bank’s marginal cost of funds continues to decline, leading the quoting bank to reduce the average rate of 5 basis points, it will trigger a lower LPR quotation. On the whole, the trend of LPR quotations depends on factors such as the trend of MLF interest rates determined by the macroeconomic and price situation, changes in market capital, and free supply and demand in the loan market.
Build a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve financial risks
The report emphasizes the establishment of an institutional mechanism for finance to effectively support the real economy. Promote the adjustment and optimization of the regional credit structure, use multi-level capital markets to increase financing support, and optimize the regional financial environment. Improve the carbon-neutral financial debt management system and promote the strict and standardized development of carbon-neutral financial debt. Strictly control the credit scale of high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects, and promote the green transformation and upgrading of “two highs” projects.Firmly insist on the positioning that the house is used for living, not for speculation, and insist on not changingreal estateAs a means of stimulating the economy in the short-term, insist on stabilizing land prices and stabilizingHouse price, Stabilize expectations and maintainreal estateThe continuity, consistency and stability of financial policies are well implementedreal estateFinancial prudential management system, increase financial support for housing leasing.
At the same time, strengthen the construction of basic financial market systems to serve the real economy and prevent market risks. Adhere to both risk prevention and development promotion, and continue to promote the high-quality development of the bond market. Strengthen the construction of the bond market legal system, consolidate the responsibilities of intermediary agencies, implement the information disclosure requirements of corporate credit bonds, and improve the credit rating system. Adhere to the principle of marketization and rule of law, continue to implement various achievements in the establishment of a bond default resolution mechanism, and resolutely crack down on all types of debt evasion. Continue to strengthen the construction of the basic system of the capital market, better protect the interests of investors, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market.
The report proposes to improve the financial risk prevention, early warning, handling, and accountability systems, and build a long-term mechanism to prevent and defuse financial risks. We will do our best to resolve existing risks and resolutely curb the resurgence of various risks. Intensify the verification and write-off of non-performing assets in the banking system, and implement classified policies to supplement the capital of small and medium-sized banks. Implement the fiscal and financial risk handling mechanism under the responsibility of local party and government leaders, strengthen local party and government risk handling responsibilities, and promote the reduction of the number of high-risk institutions in key provinces.
Recently, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly spoken out, emphasizing the effective prevention and resolution of major financial risks, and closely monitoring and investigating risk points in key areas.CITIC SecuritiesChief economist Zhu Jianfang said that relevant departments may pay more attention to key areas such as the real estate industry, as well as the financial risks of small and medium-sized banks that are more related.
(Source: China Securities Journal)
.