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Original title: The coldness of the property market has not dissipated, and the performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies in the first quarter is almost halved
The property market in the first quarter was still cold, and real estate companies had a bleak start. According to research data from Crane, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key monitored cities in March increased by 48% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 47%. The overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies also dropped by 47% year-on-year
From a hierarchical point of view, the first-tier city market fell into silence, with transactions increasing by 7% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline widening to 49%. Affected by the repeated epidemic prevention and control, the Shanghai and Shenzhen real estate markets are in a “semi-shutdown” state, and the year-on-year decline in transactions has increased significantly. Transactions in Beijing and Guangzhou were also lower than expected.
The transactions in 26 second- and third-tier cities increased by 56% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 46%. Some cities with well-controlled epidemics have bottomed out and stabilized. For example, Haikou’s transaction volume has narrowed to 3% year-on-year, and Xi’an’s transaction volume has increased by 32% year-on-year. In stressed cities, the market did recover after the implementation of the bailout policy, but the duration was short. For example, in Zhengzhou, the transaction rebounded in the first half of the month and then fell again in the second half of the month.
Corporate sales remain sluggish. The overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies in the first quarter decreased by 47% year-on-year; the monthly performance in March decreased by 52.7% year-on-year, an increase of 5.5 percentage points from the decline in February. More than 80% of the top 100 real estate companies have a year-on-year decline in their cumulative performance, and nearly 40% of them have a decline of more than 50%.
In the Kerui sales rankings, the top ten real estate companies by sales volume in the first quarter were Country Garden, Vanke,Poly DevelopmentSunac, Nakaumi,China Merchants ShekouChina Resources Land, Gemdale, Greentown, Longfor, among which only Country Garden and Vanke have a sales amount of over 100 billion.
According to statistics from the China Index Research Institute, the average sales of the top 100 real estate companies in the first quarter was 16.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47%. There were only 2 housing companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, 3 less than the same period last year; 46 housing companies exceeding 10 billion yuan, 30 less than the same period last year.
Recent real estate policies have released positive signals. On March 16, Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Vice Premier of the State Council and Director of the Finance Committee, presided over a special meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council. The meeting mentioned that with regard to real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely research and propose effective and effective risk prevention and mitigation solutions, and propose supporting measures for the transition to a new development model.
Subsequently, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated at a special meeting that it would encourage institutions to carry out M&A loans in a stable and orderly manner, focusing on supporting high-quality housing enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of difficult housing enterprises. The China Securities Regulatory Commission, the People’s Bank of China, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange also expressed a positive attitude. In addition, the Ministry of Finance recently stated that it does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities for real estate tax reform this year.
Crier Research believes that although the current policy is on the trend of easing and improving, the overall market supply and demand and transactions have not shown signs of warming in the short term, and it is expected that corporate sales targets in 2022 will be more cautious. In 2022, most companies will maintain their scale expectations from last year, or moderately lower their full-year sales targets. In the second and third quarters, companies still need to step up their push for supply, and actively market to increase the sales rate as much as possible.
As market confidence has not yet fully recovered, the overall financing has not recovered significantly, and the liquidity pressure of most companies continues. According to incomplete statistics from CRIC, in the first quarter of 2022, the financing scale of 100 typical housing companies in the industry dropped by 52.5% year-on-year, especially from February to March, overseas financing almost “stagnated”.
Land acquisition has also not improved significantly. According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, from January to March, the top 100 real estate companies acquired a total of 227.2 billion yuan of land, and the scale of land acquisition decreased by 59% year-on-year. 58.5%.
Crane Research believes that the market bottom may come in the second quarter, when transactions may bottom and stabilize, and the year-on-year decline will also be narrowed. However, based on various factors such as urban economic fundamentals, real estate market status, potential housing demand, and residents’ purchasing power, the market in each city may become more differentiated.
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Responsible editor: Zhang Yi