The Fed’s Economic Beige Book reveals important signals!U.S. stocks linger at high levels waiting for non-agricultural data

Original Title: The Fed’s Economic Beige Book Reveals Important Signals! U.S. stocks are hovering at high levels waiting for non-agricultural data…

Summary

[Fed’s economic Beige Book reveals important signals! U.S. stocks are hovering at high levels waiting for non-agricultural data]The Federal Reserve’s latest economic Beige Book provides the market with more signals on the U.S. economy: The U.S. national economy is expanding at a moderate rate, but the economy is facing supply chain disruptions and rising inflationary pressures. Currently, investors are waiting for the release of May non-agricultural employment data in the United States. The industry expects that this data may deviate from market expectations, and the Fed’s internal debate on policy orientation will increase. (Shanghai Securities News)

　　MidlandThe latest economic Beige Book published by Chu provides the market with more signals on the US economy: the US national economy is expanding at a moderate rate, but the economy is facing supply chain disruptions and rising inflationary pressures.

Currently, investors are waiting for the release of May non-agricultural employment data in the United States. Industry expectations, this data may deviate from market expectations,MidlandThere will be more debates on policy orientation within the reserve.

Before the release of non-agricultural employment data, market sentiment was relatively stable. The three major US stock indexes rose slightly on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 index continued to hover at a high level.

　　MidlandStorage Beige Book:

　　Moderate growth in economic activity and pressure on the supply chain

The Fed’s Beige Book survey report released on Wednesday stated that the increase in vaccination rates and the relaxation of economic restrictions related to the epidemic have had a positive impact on the economy of some jurisdictions. The US national economy is expanding at a moderate rate, but the economy is facing the impact of supply chain disruption. This has brought inflationary pressures.

The Fed’s Beige Book pointed out that from early April to late May, the US economy grew at a slightly higher rate than the previous reporting period. However, supply chain challenges continue to plague production in various industries, with widespread shortages of materials and labor and delays in delivery affecting production efficiency.

In addition, inflationary pressures have further increased. Due to the continuous interruption of the supply chain and the rapid rise in input costs, the prices of construction and manufacturing raw materials have increased significantly, and the sales prices have also risen moderately. It is expected that the US economy will face increased costs and higher prices in the next few months.

On the whole, the Beige Book report believes that as the pace of vaccination accelerates, the future of the United States is brighter, and Fed officials are considering how quickly the withdrawalcurrencyPolicy Support.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Hack said that now may be the time to consider downsizing. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barking said he is paying attention to signs of wage pressure.The Federal Reserve will release itsinterest rate, The latest quarterly forecasts for economic growth, unemployment and inflation.

　　InvescoChief Globalmarketing strategyTeacher Kristina Hooper predicts that the market will see disagreements within the Fed this month, because there will be a small but increasingly loud group of participants urging the Fed to start reducing the scale of debt purchases as soon as possible. The outside world may record the meeting. Seeing signs of increasing internal debate within the Fed.

　　U.S. non-agricultural employment data in May

　　Or deviate from market expectations

This week, another focus of the market is the May non-agricultural employment data. As the April non-agricultural employment report disappointed the market, the May employment report may fall short of expectations. Employment is one of the Fed’s policy goals, or we can see the Fed’s future movements from it.

The market currently believes that about 600,000 non-agricultural jobs will be added in May.InvescoChief global market strategist Kristina Hooper believes that considering the continued recovery of the US economy, Americans are increasingly willing to return to work. Although the final employment data will be lower than this level, it will not deviate significantly.

The agency believes that it is necessary to be cautious when confirming that the non-agricultural employment report “exceeds expectations” or “deviations from expectations”. Jiasheng Group’s definition of “deviation from expectations” is 200,000 more or less than the mainstream expected value of 650,000 new people.

Senior of Jiasheng GroupAnalyst Tony Sycamore said that if 850,000 new jobs are created in May, it may confirm that the US economic recovery is still advancing and prompt the Fed to adopt a tougher stance to push up the dollar.The performance of value stock indexes such as the S&P 500 is expected to outperform traditionallyinterest rateUnder pressure in the rising environmentNasdaq100 index.

“If the number of new jobs is 450,000 or less than 450,000, the market may see it as a signal that the Fed will maintain a moderate tone for a longer period of time and open up the space for the dollar to fall again.NasdaqThe performance of the 100 index should be better than that of the value stock index, and gold may take advantage of the momentum to attack the new resistance zone near 1965. “Tony Sycamore said.

　　S&P 500 Index Hovering High

　　WSB concept stocks make a comeback

Before the release of non-agricultural employment data, market sentiment was relatively stable. The three major US stock indexes rose slightly on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 index continued to hover at a high level. WSB concept stocks made a comeback, with U.S. pharmaceutical stocks and auto stocks generally rising.

As of the close, the Dow rose 25.07 points, an increase of 0.07%. The Nasdaq rose 19.85 points, an increase of 0.14%, and the S&P 500 index closed up 6.08 points to 4,208.12 points, an increase of 0.14%.

“Inflation expectations exceed the level that may be achieved in the near future. We believe that inflation expectations are rising and will eventually exceed the Fed’s target”,Morgan StanleyMike Wilson, chief US equity strategist, believes that many assets are pricing in rising inflation.

Optimistic expectations for the US economy boosted the price of US light crude oil futures by more than 1%, and energy stocks have also become the best-performing sector in the S&P’s eleven sub-sectors.real estateThe sectors and information technology sectors were among the top gainers, while the materials sector and non-essential consumer goods sectors performed relatively poorly.

In terms of energy stocks,British Petroleum、Occidental PetroleumRose more than 2%,SchlumbergerRose more than 7%,ChevronWait for an increase of more than 1%. U.S. pharmaceutical stocks closed up generally,Novavax PharmaceuticalsUp nearly 18%, BioNTech up more than 6%, Moderna up nearly 4%.

WSB concept stocks “rise” again. AMC Entertainment Holdings soared by more than 95%, with a total market value of over US$30 billion. The intraday rose 126.65% and hit a fuse.Goss ElectronicsRose nearly 70%, Express rose nearly 36%,Game stationRose more than 13%.

(Source: Shanghai Securities News)

(Editor in charge: DF532)