The first rise in the new year is inevitable!Domestic oil prices may usher in a rise, the full implementation of National VI B gasoline
International oil prices fell on the 22nd as the market worried that the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes would lead to an economic slowdown. However, agency monitoring shows that the change rate of crude oil has passed the red line, which means that domestic oil prices may encounter the “first rise” in the new year.
On December 22, domestic oil prices reversed their rising trend in the past few days, and fell in intraday fluctuations. As of the close, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in February 2023 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell US$0.80 to close at US$77.49 a barrel, a decrease of 1.02%. London-based Brent crude futures for delivery in February 2023 fell $1.22, or 1.48%, to settle at $80.98 a barrel.
In 2022, the international oil market will rise first and then fall. In the second half of the year, crude oil prices will fluctuate and decline, basically giving up all the gains in the first half of the year. At present, crude oil prices are at the price level at the beginning of the year, and the downward space is limited.
Changes in international oil prices will directly affect the adjustment of domestic oil prices. According to the current refined oil price formation mechanism, the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 3, 2023.
According to Jinlian Chuang’s calculations, as of the fourth working day on December 23, 2022, the average price of reference crude oil is 78.75 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of 2.50%, and the corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel can be increased by 200 yuan per ton . The range of domestic oil price changes has exceeded the red line for upward adjustment. If the price adjustment is implemented, it means that domestic oil prices will usher in the “first rise” in the new year.
Domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale prices continued to fluctuate and decline. Because the retail price reduction window has just opened, and the drop is higher than the wholesale price, the wholesale and retail prices of gasoline and diesel have fallen. As it is currently in the price adjustment cycle, Bi Mingxin predicts that the retail price will remain stable, while the domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale market will show a stabilizing trend, and there is limited room for fluctuations in the price difference between wholesale and retail.
It is worth mentioning that starting from January 1, 2023, National VI B gasoline will be officially implemented…