The five consecutive positives of the international oil price week line are imminent, and three factors indicate that the oil market is bullish and prosperous. FX678

On Friday (June 25), international oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day and are expected to record five consecutive weekly liters. As the market is betting that OPEC+ will treat the increase in production from August with caution, the oil market is expected to be in short supply.

The adoption of the US infrastructure proposal has boosted optimism about the outlook for energy demand, and the prospects of the US lifting of sanctions on Iran and promptly prompting more oil to return to the market have diminished, and these have also supported oil prices.

At 14:25 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.08% to $73.36 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.07% to $74.86 per barrel. NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil have increased by more than 3% this week, and have hit their highest points since October 2018, reaching US$74.25/barrel and US$75.26/barrel, respectively.

Ravindra Rao, Vice President of Commodities at Kotak Securities, said: “As demand continues to recover, OPEC+ restricts supply and decreases in US inventories, expectations of tight global markets are the main factors supporting crude oil.”

The market is focusing on the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia and other allies (OPEC+) on July 1 to discuss further relaxation of production cuts from August.

Analysts said that in terms of demand, the key factor OPEC+ must consider is the strong growth in the United States, Europe and China, which benefited from vaccination and economic unblocking; but its impact was offset by the increase in new crown cases and outbreaks in other regions.

Analysts at ANZ Bank predict that OPEC+ is expected to slightly increase its supply of 500,000 barrels/day in August after agreeing to increase crude oil by 2.1 million barrels/day from May to July.

Singapore DailyFX strategist Margaret Yang said: “I think OPEC+ will cautiously increase production from August to meet the growing demand without causing significant price fluctuations. The market may have already digested its August production increase expectations in advance.”

U.S. President Biden accepted a $1.2 trillion proposal reached by the two parties in the Senate on Thursday to renew American roads, bridges and highways and help stimulate the economy. This marked a major breakthrough in a key domestic policy goal for Biden.

According to a statement from the White House, the eight-year proposal includes US$109 billion for roads, bridges and major projects; US$73 billion for power infrastructure; US$66 billion for passenger and freight railways; and US$65 billion. For broadband access; US$49 billion for public transportation; US$25 billion for airports.

The prospect that the United States lifted sanctions on Iran and soon prompted more oil to return to the market has faded. A senior U.S. official said on Thursday that if the serious differences between the U.S. and Iran on the resumption of the 2015 nuclear agreement cannot be resolved “in the foreseeable future,” Washington may need to reconsider its attitude toward Iran.

The official told reporters on the conference call, “We still have serious differences…on a series of issues, whether it is the nuclear steps Iran needs to take to re-compliance with the agreement, the sanctions mitigation that the United States will provide, or the steps the two sides will take. Order.”