“Even with the extraordinary interventions by the Government, in the first quarter of 2022 over the first quarter of 2021 there was an increase of 131% for the typical domestic customer of electricity (from 20.06 to 46.03 euro cents / kWh, taxes included) and 94% for natural gas (from 70.66 to 137.32 euro cents per cubic meter, including taxes) “. This was revealed by Arera in a hearing in the Senate, explaining that “the surge in wholesale energy prices in 2021”, January-December 2021 + 500% for gas and + 400% for electricity was reflected on prices starting from the second half of 2021.
“The strong volatility of prices that characterizes this period makes, in the opinion of this Authority, particularly difficult to provide reliable forecasting elements” continues Arera who then says: “However, there remains a situation of significant volatility in future prices for the current year, which , after a drop in the first days of the year to around 65 € / MWh for natural gas and 170 € / MWh for electricity (average values in 2022), they have quickly repositioned in recent days around 80 € / MWh for natural gas and 200 € / MWh for electricity. Going even further (with the caveat of growing inaccuracy) – continues Arera – the current prices of natural gas for 2023 and 2024 respectively see a decrease to values around 55 € / MWh in 2023 and 39 € / MWh in 2024. Similarly, for electricity, a return of around € 150 / MWh is expected in 2023 and € 113 / MWh in 2024 ».
Even these prices, he adds, “which remain above the historical price averages, however, show a relatively high volatility, with variations that tend to reflect changes in the prices of shorter-term products”.
Precisely for this reason, the authority believes that «a greater harmonization of the regulation of stocks in Europe can be an effective tool for dealing with phenomena of price volatility linked to the scarcity of supplies. Also in consideration of the fact that the reduction in the level of safety resulting from these circumstances does not only concern the country in which the storage is located, but any exceptional events would also produce effects in the rest of Europe “.
According to Arera, in addition to the «strengthening and expansion of the European regulation of storage, option mechanisms could be studied which, without intervening on the formation of prices and market conditions, protect the system from extreme fluctuations in prices. The capacity market for the electricity sector is a typical example of this approach ». Secondly, he concludes, “mechanisms could be evaluated that favor, always from a competitive point of view, the conclusion of long-term contracts, for example corresponding to possible increases in national production capacity, where possible and deemed appropriate to accompany the process of decarbonization “.