(Original title: The 250 billion new energy giant broke the news: The supply of lithium batteries is extremely tight! The latest official data shows that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 20%, and the chip is no longer the weak point of production capacity)
The new energy vehicles on the tuyere are still very popular.
In the past November, China’s new energy vehicle market has sold out again. After the market on December 8, the Passenger Federation released data showing that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 429,000 in November, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 131.7%. A more critical indicator is that the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in November reached 20.8%.
At the same time, the Federation of Travel Services issued an important signal: the dark moment of automotive chip supply has passed. The improvement in chip supply was originally expected to bring production back to the level of last November, but the actual chain growth rate was 14%. This has exceeded market expectations, which means that the biggest weakness that restricts automobile production: the lack of core, is improving.
Behind the strong sales of new energy vehicles, the supply of upstream lithium batteries does not seem to be optimistic. On December 8, a person from Xiaopeng Motors, with a market value of 250 billion, said that due to the epidemic, the industry is facing extremely tight supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which has brought great uncertainty to the production of Xiaopeng P7 480E/N models. Due to the nature, the 480 model orders cannot be delivered in time within the scheduled delivery cycle.
New energy vehicles are selling again
It really sold out! The sales of new energy vehicles once again astounded the market.
On December 8, the data disclosed by the Passenger Association showed that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 429,000 in November, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 131.7%; from January to November, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.807 million. , An increase of 190.2% year-on-year. In November, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 378,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 122.3%, and a month-on-month increase of 19.8%; from January to November, the retail sales of new energy vehicles was 2.514 million units, a year-on-year increase of 178.3%.
This is after the month-on-month decline in new energy vehicles in October, it has once again ushered in a month-on-month growth and hit a new monthly high during the year, which means that under the background of the gradual withdrawal of subsidies, the market demand for new energy vehicles is still rapidly releasing .
At the same time, in November, the number of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers whose wholesale sales exceeded 10,000 units rose to 14, including BYD 90,546, Tesla China 52,859, SAIC-GM-Wuling 50,141, Great Wall Motor 16136, and Xiaopeng Motor 15613. Cars, Guangzhou Automobile E’an 15035, Chery Automobile 14,482, Ideal Car 13,485, Geely Automobile 13,090, SAIC Passenger Car 12,225, SAIC Volkswagen 11986, Weilai Automobile 10878, FAW-Volkswagen 10705, Hezhong Automobile 10013 Vehicles.
In fact, the November sales of new energy vehicles broke out against the trend. Overall, China’s passenger car market did not perform satisfactorily in November, with retail sales of 1.816 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% and a decrease of 6 compared to November 2019. %, an increase of 6% month-on-month. It can be seen that the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has formed a strongly differentiated feature, which realizes the substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market and drives the auto market to accelerate the pace of transition to new energy.
Under this trend, the penetration rate of China’s new energy vehicles continues to rise. According to data from the Passenger Association, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 20.8% in November, again exceeding the 20% mark. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands reached 37.4%, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars was 19.4%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 3.6%. The penetration rate from January to November is 13.9%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles this year is expected to exceed 15%, which is a significant increase compared to the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
The Passenger Association stated that, in fact, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is not a smooth linear increase. It will be difficult to continue to increase substantially in the future. It is judged that the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles should exceed 20% in 2022. Previously, CICC also predicted that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the global mainstream market in 2022 will break the 10% threshold and enter the steep stage of the S-shaped growth curve.
It should be pointed out that part of the reason why the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased so rapidly this year is that the chip industry chain in the automotive market has been hit by the epidemic this year, resulting in insufficient chip supply, which has affected the overall supply of passenger cars.
The “darkest moment” of car chips is past
A sentence in the latest report issued by the Federation of Travelling Associations has aroused market attention. It clearly stated: “The dark moment of automotive chip supply in the third quarter has passed. The improvement in chip supply was originally expected to promote production to the level of November last year, but the actual growth rate was 14% compared with the previous month.” This obviously exceeded market expectations, meaning that, The biggest weakness that restricts automobile production: core shortage, which is improving.
2021 may be the most helpless year for the automotive industry. On one side, there is strong demand, while on the other side, key materials such as semiconductors and chips continue to be in short supply. As the epidemic has swept the world, many countries have encountered problems in automobile production, and the impact of the “core shortage” and the skyrocketing price of raw materials has been huge.
The chip market has repeatedly staged chaos such as chip purchases, hoarding, and driving up prices. At one time, the price of some car chips continued to rise, some by 3-10 times, and some by 30-40 times, and they were out of stock for a long time.
As a result, the auto industry has seen a “three-volume reduction” pattern in which production, sales, and inventory are simultaneously declining, and this has continued for half a year. This is the first situation in the past ten years. In September of this year, consulting company Alixpartners issued a forecast that the continued shortage of semiconductor chips is expected to reduce the global automakers’ car production by 7.7 million vehicles this year, and total revenue losses of US$210 billion (approximately RMB 100 million).
Since the third quarter, the lack of cores in the automotive industry is alleviating, and the latest setting of the Federation of Passengers has further eased the panic in the automotive market. It can be predicted that the output of automakers will further increase for some time in the future, and the sales momentum of new energy vehicles may continue to be maintained.
Behind this is the recovery of the global chip industry chain and the rapid expansion of chip production capacity. A report from IDC Research stated that as “large-scale capacity expansion begins before the end of 2022,” chips may even experience overcapacity in 2023.
Among them, TSMC is building a new super factory in Arizona, and Samsung Electronics announced that it will invest 17 billion US dollars in a factory in Texas, and plans to start production in the second half of 2024.
China is also expanding wildly. Chip foundry leader SMIC has built three 28-nanometer fabs in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai. Once mass production is achieved in the next three to five years, the total monthly production capacity of 240,000 12-inch wafers will be almost twice the current output.
An insider in the chip industry in Shenzhen said that the tight supply chain of chips has been eased. The risk is that when the new fab is put into production, the production capacity will exceed demand, and the demand of end users is slowing down. It is not communicated to the foundry, and the excess chip production capacity is likely to be seen in the next period of time.
Xiaopeng Motors releases key signals
Returning to the market, the sales of new energy vehicles have skyrocketed again, indicating that the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry chain is still there, and after the chip shortage pattern is eased, the output of new energy vehicles will also resume growth, which will most likely drive upstream momentum. Subdivision tracks for batteries, lithium resources, and auto parts.
On December 8, the salt lake lithium extraction sector of A shares rebounded strongly. Kodak made the daily limit. Salt Lake, Tianqi Lithium, Donghua Technology, Lanxiao Technology, Tibet City Investment, and Ganfeng Lithium followed up. In the Ningde era, the leader of the new energy industry chain, despite successive foreign sell-offs, the stock price is still at a historical high. With the new energy penetration rate continuing to rise, the future performance growth is more certain.
It is foreseeable that the sales of new energy vehicles have skyrocketed, and the demand for upstream lithium batteries is very strong, and there is even a shortage of them. On December 8, a person from Xiaopeng Motors told the media that affected by the epidemic, the industry is facing extremely tight supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which has brought great uncertainty to the production of Xiaopeng’s P7 480E/N models. As a result, orders for 480 models could not be delivered in time within the scheduled delivery period.
According to a person from Xiaopeng Motors, the current estimated lead time for new orders for the Xiaopeng P7 480E/N models is 15 to 17 weeks on average. Xiaopeng Motors will step up information communication with all levels of the supply chain to maximize the production schedule. Accuracy, in order to give customers a more accurate estimated lead time.
The background of Xiaopeng Automobile’s emergency response is that a “Joint Statement of Xiaopeng Motors P7 480km Endurance Scheduled Owners on Xiaopeng Automobile’s Refusing to Deliver Vehicles” has been circulating on the Internet, which accused Xiaopeng Motors of discriminating against scheduled orders for vehicles in the market. , P7 670km endurance version orders are fully arranged for production and supply of vehicles, 480 version orders are frozen and will not be allocated for vehicles.
From the response of Xiaopeng Motors, it can be seen that the delivery difficulties are mainly due to the tight supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries. This may make the market re-emphasize the prosperity of the lithium battery industry chain. After a wave of adjustments before, it is not ruled out that it will receive funds again. The possibility of pursuit.
Another hot track: the future certainty of semiconductors has swayed slightly, and the set of the Federation will make some market investors worry about the oversupply situation in the semiconductor industry again.
As we all know, the semiconductor industry has always had a strong cyclical nature, going through a cycle from peak to trough every 4 to 6 years. An improvement occurs during periods of high demand, which in turn leads to a shortage of supply, leading to price increases and income growth.
Looking back at the first three quarters of this year, global production capacity shortages have led to higher chip prices. At the same time, along with the increase in localization rates, companies in the semiconductor industry chain have maintained relatively high revenue and profit growth.
Looking forward to 2022, many analysts believe that under the background of rapid expansion of production capacity, the prosperity of the semiconductor industry will be differentiated, and the price of some chips may show a downward trend, which is more relevant to consumer downstream segments. The industry is under greater pressure for growth, and it is more difficult for the valuation to expand further from the previous month. However, the demand for chips related to new energy is still relatively strong.
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