Research report text
Egg prices were generally stable on weekends, and the performance was relatively strong. As of December 4, the average price of pink eggs was 5.3 yuan/catties, and the average price of red eggs was 5.45 yuan/catties. The current egg price level is still at the highest level in history during the same period.The main reason for the strength is that the supply side is low and the demand side continues to be strong. ResidentseggPurchasing is positive.
At present, the spot goods are still under control and support, and the export of eggs from some production areas is blocked, and the start of catering consumption temporarily supports the consumption of eggs. With the optimization of management and control, the circulation of goods is gradually smooth, and the elasticity of egg consumption increases. High egg prices may restrain consumption, egg consumption may gradually turn from prosperity to decline, and egg prices may continue to weaken. Although there is stocking support before the Spring Festival, residents continue to stock up in the early stage, and household egg stocks are too high. The stocking effort before the Spring Festival this year may be weak. At the same time, the current level of production is not high, the elimination of old chickens has increased, the number of in-production stocks has decreased, and the low level of supply is difficult to change, which has strong support for egg prices. Pay attention to the support of the comprehensive cost line for egg prices.
Logic and perspective:
01 The current spot discount is still relatively large, the spot is strong, the elimination of old chickens has increased, and the support below 01 is strong, but the spot still has the possibility of falling. As the post-holiday 01 contract, the space above is also limited, and the overall operation may still fluctuate. In the long run, the decline in feed, the improvement of breeding profits, and the recovery of enthusiasm for stock replenishment will help improve the supply level in the future market and suppress the far month. In terms of operation, it is suggested that 01 should be cautious in short and long, and long-term rallies should be short-term and long-term contracts.
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