Original title: The media fund has risen by more than 30% recently!The Spring Festival is approaching, with the concept of Metaverse, Virtual Human, and XR
For the media industry, this winter is not too cold.
On January 6, many stocks in the media sector hit a daily limit; on January 12, the China Securities Media sector closed up 0.67%.Zhejiang Interconnection、Gravity Media、China Media Holdings、Yuanlong Yatu、Hubei Radio and TelevisionWait for multiple stocks to go up and down.
The media sector has rebounded strongly in the past two months. Since November 2021, driven by the hot market of the Metaverse, the media sector has been rising all the way. From November 1, 2021 to present,The media sector soared by nearly 20%, and rose by 15.6% in a single month in December, ranking first in the industry index.
Looking back to 2021, affected by various factors such as policy supervision, repeated epidemics and the gradual decline of the overall penetration rate dividend, the fundamentals of the media industry and the performance of the secondary market are both weaker than historical levels. As of the end of October 2021, the A-share media index (CITIC) fell by 12.45%, but the situation reversed rapidly in November.
From the perspective of sub-industry performance, the three sub-industries of the media sector have achieved positive growth of more than 10% since the beginning of November.The animation index took the lead, rising by more than 30%。
In terms of lengthening the cycle, the growth rate of 3 media stocks has doubled in the past three months.Hubei Radio and Television,Chinese onlineandZhongqingbaoThey rose 148%, 139% and 109% respectively.blue cursorIn the past three months and the past January, the growth rate has exceeded 90%.
Thanks to the “Dongfeng” of Metaverse, the share price of game company Zhongqingbao has soared from 8 yuan at the end of August to 33 yuan today.In more than 4 months, the company’s share price has quadrupled.
on the news, after the market closed on January 11, some media reported that,China MobileThe official website of the Metaverse Industry Committee of the Communications Federation announced the acceptance list of the first batch of members. The first batch of 267 individuals and units who applied for compliance accepted 65/person after compliance review, and listed companies such as Zhongqingbao and Blue Cursor were on the list.
On December 30, Shanghai issued the “14th Five-Year Plan” for the electronic information industry, and the forward-looking layout of Metaverse, etc., XR and Metaverse welcomed the favorable policies.
How do you view the recent rebound and sustainability of A-share media?
The A-share media sector has rebounded significantly recently. What factors have played a direct role in promoting it? And where is the sustainability of this rebound going?
The pessimistic expectations of the policy were digested.Shenwan HongyuanIn the research report, it was pointed out that the pessimistic expectations of policies such as anti-monopoly, data security, and game film and television content supervision were basically digested. In terms of game and film and television content supervision, the current anti-addiction policy for minors in games has been implemented, and the release of version numbers has not been resumed. The more than one year adjustment since June 2020 has digested pessimistic expectations, and industry consolidation is conducive to establishing industry norms and promoting industry concentration.
At present, the valuation of the media segment is low, and a new round of technological innovations such as Metaverse, NFT, virtual human, and XR is expected to drive the valuation of the sector to continue to increase.
The current PE of China Securities Media is 34.41 times, which is the 28.14% quantile of the valuation in the past 10 years, and is lower than the median valuation of 44.39 times.
Shenwan Hongyuan reviewed the historical trend of A-share media for more than ten years and found that technological innovation is an important factor driving the increase in valuation. At the end of 2021, Facebook will be renamed Meta, which is the beginning of the global technology giant’s layout of the metaverse. The continuous improvement of VR/AR display technology will promote the evolution of the industry to the content ecology. In addition, virtual humans are expected to change the drawbacks of high-cost and high-risk business models for artists in the content industry; NFTs help to confirm copyright rights and achieve tradability, which is expected to increase the value of IP.
After the general rise, more attention will be paid to the landing verification of related products.However, because the Metaverse is not a specific technology or application is still in the early stage of development, it is mostly investment in the secondary market. From this point of view, the main initiators are overseas technology giants who expect continuous industrial catalysts, and some local governments in China have encouraged VR, and the theme is expected to continue before the earnings season. After the general increase, the next step will pay more attention to the landing verification of related products.
At the end of the year, the cultural and entertainment consumer market for Lunar New Year documents is booming.China Merchants SecuritiesStatistics show that the 2021 Lunar New Year (December 1-December 31) box office has recovered to more than 50% of previous years, and the three major domestic films drive the 2022 New Year’s Day box office to be the same as 2019, with many films with box office appeal. Locked in the Spring Festival stalls, the follow-up box office can be expected.
The Cultural Media Fund has recently made considerable gains, with a maximum rise of more than 30%
The long-silent media sector will rise from November 2021, and themed funds will also be proud.There are a total of 98 Wind cultural media theme funds (the A/C share of the fund only retains the A share). From the rate of return from November 2021 to the present, the top 20 cultural media themed funds in terms of return rate17.56% return on average, of which the Galaxy Sports and Entertainment (005585.OF) theme fund achieved a relatively high rate of return of 32.84% in more than two months.
The top 20 cultural and media funds in terms of return in the past two months, the average fund size is 723 million yuan, of which GF China Securities Media ETF (512980.OF) has the largest scale of about 4.6 billion yuan, and the rest with a scale of over 1 billion yuan only There are 4 funds, namely China Europe Pension Industry A (001955.OF), GF Excellent Enterprise Selection A (002624.OF), GF Industry Leading A (270025.OF), and China Europe Ruijian (010429.OF).
In terms of years of establishment, the average establishment is 4.59 years.Since the establishment of the 20 funds, the average return rate is nearly 57% (non-annualized), and the long-term return rate is considerable.
1. Galaxy Entertainment Theme (005585.OF)
From November 2021 to the present, the Galaxy Culture, Sports and Entertainment Theme Fund has achieved a return rate of nearly 33%, ranking TOP1 among the cultural media funds.
In terms of industry allocation, the fund’s largest heavy-holding industry is the media sector, with a holding ratio of over 39%.
Looking at the top ten stocks with heavy positions, the third quarterly report shows that the fund has been allocated with heavy positionsSanqi Mutual Entertainment、Mango Supermedia、Visual ChinaThree media stocks, another heavyweight sports sector stocksChinese sports industry, and the tourism sectorCDFG、caesar culture。
Looking at the rise and fall of individual stocks since November 2021, the above 6 stocks except China CDFG fell by nearly 24%, and the other 5 stocks all rose sharply, of which Visual China rose by more than 93% in more than two months.
In terms of scale, the size of the fund is only 28.51 million yuan, and it is a “mini” media concept fund that has been established for nearly 4 years.
The fund is a flexible allocation fund, and the fund manager is Lu Yiqiao. He said in the interim report that he would pay close attention to the changing trends of the VR-related industry chain, strive to find beneficial stocks, and choose an opportunity to buy stocks in the cultural and sports industry with reasonable valuations.
2. Yinhua CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (159855.OF)
From November 2021 to the present, the Yinhua CSI Film and Television Themed ETF has achieved a return of 26.58%, second only to the Galaxy Sports and Entertainment Themed Fund, which has been established for less than a year.
In terms of industry allocation, the fund holds a heavy position in the media industry with a ratio of 92.65% (interim report in 2021), which is a “high-purity” media film and television fund.
In terms of stocks with heavy holdings, the top 10 stocks with heavy holdings in the third quarter of 2021 are in addition tohappy dooroutside, the restWanda Movies、Light Media、a perfect world、Chinese film, Mango Super Media,Jebsen、Huace Film and Television, Visual China,New Media SharesAll are film stocks.
In terms of market conditions,The CSI Film and Television Index has surged by more than 27% since November 2021.
3. GF China Securities Media ETF (512980.OF)
In the past two months, among the top 20 funds of cultural media theme funds, the largest is GF China Securities Media ETF, with a fund size of over 4.6 billion yuan and a return of nearly 24%.
In terms of industry allocation, the 2021 mid-year report shows that the fund has a heavy holding of the media sector as high as 99.21%, fully benefiting from the recent strong rebound in the media sector.
In terms of heavy holding stocks, the top 10 heavy holding stocks in the third quarter of 2021 are all media sector stocks, and they are also perfect world,Leo shares、Pearl of the Orient、Kunlun Wanweithe top 10 shareholders.
The fund manager is Luo Guoqing. He is currently the deputy general manager of the Index Investment Department of GF Fund. He manages 13 funds with a scale of over 14.7 billion. The investment manager has been in operation for over 6 years, and the highest return for 6 consecutive months is over 42%.
Luo Guoqing said in the fund’s mid-term report that the prosperity of the media industry is expected to bottom out. First of all, offline industries such as outdoor advertising have a clear recovery trend, and prices are expected to increase in the future. Secondly, the film and television theater chain ushered in a comprehensive recovery after the epidemic, and the popularity of the Spring Festival in 2021 is a good verification. Thirdly, as the mobile game industry enters the second half, the value of game developers gradually emerges. After the adjustment of the game industry, the valuation is at a low level and has good growth potential.
4. Huatai Pineapple CSI Animation Game ETF (516770.OF), Huaxia CSI Animation Game ETF (159869.OF)
Huatai Pineapple CSI Animation Game ETF (referred to as Game Animation ETF) and Huaxia CSI Animation Game ETF are two media sub-sectors – animation and game track-themed funds, which both achieved a return rate of over 20% in November 2021 and were established The age is less than 1 year.
In terms of stocks with heavy positions, they will be held at the end of the third quarter of 2021three six zero、Giant Network、Youzu Network, Perfect World and other animation game stocks.
In terms of market conditions,The CSI Animation Game Index has surged more than 20% since November 2021.
How is the market outlook for the media sector?Investment opportunities and risks coexist
1. How is the market outlook for the media sector?
Cathay Pacific Fund: After the media industry has undergone in-depth adjustment, the overall valuation is at a low level, the medium and long-term prospects are still bright, and the short-term hot spots still have a certain catalyst, but gradually return to rationality.
Zhao Bingsha of HFT Fund: Looking forward to next year, there are certain opportunities for repair in the media and Internet industries. Many regulatory policies may become the norm, and relevant policies are expected to be marginally relaxed.
Tianfeng Securities: The media sector does not need to be pessimistic in 2022. The progress of regulatory measures is still the core contradiction. Considering the pessimistic expectations of previous policies and the lower limit of historical valuation, the catalyst may come from the landing of policy boots.
2. Which track investment opportunities do you focus on?
Zheshang Securities: The game industry looks at the product cycle in the short term, but sees the sea in the long run; channels such as theaters and long videos attach importance to changes in the competitive landscape and recovery of content supply; attach importance to investment opportunities for Metaverse virtual humans;
Caixin Securities: 1) The main application directions of Metaverse in the media field are virtual and NFT. 2) In the game sector, the short-term policy and supervision boundaries are clear, the performance is in the rising period after the launch of new products, and the valuation is at a historically low level. In the long run, it is expected to become the first application scenario of Metaverse. 3) The Spring Festival is coming. Although the local epidemic may affect the operation of local theaters, with the blessing of more than ten high-quality films such as “Sniper” and “Super Family”, it is expected to drive the demand for watching movies during the Spring Festival.
Shen Wan Hongyuan: Expectations of relatively sluggish short-term fundamentals in the media sector have been fully digested. In the medium term, we see a shift from the ocean and asset-light platform model to a heavier operating model. In the long run, we see the ocean of stars brought by the Metaverse to the next-generation Internet.
3. What industry risks should be paid attention to?
A number of institutions said that when paying attention to investment opportunities in the media sector, they need to pay long-term attention to industry risks such as less-than-expected maintenance of the Metaverse, uncontrollable factors of the epidemic, policy supervision risks, company performance less than expected, and technology landing less than expected.
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Responsible editor: Tang Jing
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